Monday, September 10 2018 18:49
Karine Melikyan

Central Bank of Armenia has increased the forecast range for GDP  growth by 2018 - from 4.6-6.5% to 5.6- 6.9%

Central Bank of Armenia has increased the forecast range for GDP  growth by 2018 - from 4.6-6.5% to 5.6- 6.9%

ArmInfo. Central Bank of Armenia raised the forecast range for GDP growth for 2018 from the previous 4.6-6.5% to the current 5.6-6.9%, more modestly revised  upwards, the expected growth threshold for 2019 - 4.6-6.4%, and by  2020 - 4.1-6.2%, against 4.1-6.2% previously predicted and 3.9-6.1%  respectively. Moreover, the increase in the medium- term forecast for  the growth of GDP, the Central Bank determines the expected high  investment activity this year. This is set out in the Central Bank's  monetary policy program (QCP) for the third quarter of 2018,  published in late August.

Here is the updated forecast for private sector consumption growth of  3.4% and investment - by 37%, the impact of which on economic growth  is estimated at 8.2 percentage points, while the positive impact of  exports on GDP growth is estimated at 0.6% of the item, while the  effect of state expenditures on GDP growth will be negative by 2.6  percentage points. As a comparison, it should be noted that in the  previous forecast it was expected that the growth of private sector  consumption by 3.7% and investments - by 9.5% - would have an impact  on economic growth by 4.6 percentage points, while the positive  impact of exports on GDP growth was estimated at 2.6 percentage  points.

In the second half of this year, the Central Bank expects a slowdown  in export growth due to the slowdown of the mining industry,  according to which the forecast for export growth for 2018g from the  previous 11- 13% has been revised up to the current 8-10%. On import,  the Central Bank expects in the second half of this year a decline  due to a slowdown in domestic demand, including due to the suspension  of the Amulsar program investment. But given the higher than expected  growth rates of imports in the first half of the year, the forecast  for import growth for 2018 is in the range of 6-8%, compared with the  previously expected 5- 7%.

The forecast for the growth of remittances for 2018 is revised  downward from the previous 7-9% to the current 5-7%, due to a more  significant than expected depreciation of the ruble.

Proceeding from the above, the Central Bank also revised the forecast  for the ratio of current account / GDP deficit to 2018, expecting  some increase - to 4-5%, with stabilization in the medium term near  3%.

It should be noted that according to the forecast of the World Bank  in 2018, updated in June 2018, the growth of Armenia's GDP will be  4.1%, slowing down to 4% in 2019-2020. In the state budget of the  Republic of Armenia in 2018 GDP growth is set at 4.5%.

According to the State Committee of Armenia, Armenia's GDP grew by  1.7% in 2017 AMD 5.580 trillion ($ 11.6 billion). A year earlier, in  2016, GDP growth slowed down to 0.2% from 3.2% in 2015. The  index-deflator of GDP in 2017 was 102.2%, against 100.5% in 2016. The  economic growth of 2017 supported the services sector - by 14.4% per  annum, trade - by 14%, and the industrial sector - by 12.6%, against  a growth of 7.1%, 0.1% and 6.7%, respectively, a year earlier . The  energy complex and the construction sector - 6.1% and 2.2%, which  recorded a year-earlier decline of 6.2% and 10.8%, also provided a  relatively modest growth. Against this background, the agricultural  sector, having delayed in recession, only slowed down to 3% from 5.2%  in 2016. Armenia's foreign trade turnover for 2017 increased by  26.9%, in particular exports - by 25.2% and imports - by 27.8%. A  year earlier, in 2016, foreign trade turnover grew by 7.4% due to an  increase in exports by 20% and imports by 1.6%.

According to statistics, economic activity in the first half of 2018  increased by 8.9% per annum against the background of growth of  foreign trade turnover by 28.9%, in particular exports - by 20% and  imports - by 33.9%. Services and the construction sector grew by  18.1% and 13.5% respectively, while other industries showed a modest  climb: the trade sector - by 9.1%, the agricultural sector - 5.5%,  the sector - by 3.7% and energy complex - 1.5%. The year before, in  the first half of 2017, the growth of economic activity amounted to  6.1% per annum and the drivers of the trade sector, the industrial  sector and services sector - 12.6%, 12.4% and 10.9% respectively, and  the growth of foreign trade turnover by 24% was provoked by the  ascension of exports by 21% and imports by 25.8%. 

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Government Bonds

 

ISIN AMGB1029A250
Auction ID AMGB1029A250A
Date 12.05.2017
Issue date 29.10.2015
Issue volume (AMD) 50 000 000 000
Maturity date 29.10.2025
Coupon year yield 11.00%
Auction volume (AMD) 1000 000 000 - 2.000 000 000
Auction date 12.05.2017
DLS
Total amount (AMD) 1 000 000 000
Amount of the total bids (AMD) 787 200 000
Amount of the total accepted bids (AMD) 787 200 000
Cut of yield (%) 10,6447
Weighted avrage yield (%) 10,6447
Auction max  yield (%) 10,6447
Auction min  yield (%) 10,6447
Number of participants 5
ArmEx

 

СПРОС (Покупка)

USD

Средневзв. Цена

482,00

ПРЕДЛОЖЕНИЕ (Продажа)

  USD

Средневзв. Цена

-

СДЕЛКИ

USD

Цена откр.

482,00

Цена закр.

482,00

Мин. Цена

482,00

Макс. Цена

482,00

Ср/взв. Цена

482,00

-0.16

Кол-во сделок

1

Объем (инвал.)

200 000

0бъем (драм)

96 400 000

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