Monday, November 12 2018 12:34

ArmInfo. On November 12, the Standing Committee on Finance, Credit and Budgetary Affairs of the Parliament of Armenia sent the draft budget of Armenia for 2019 to  the plenary session of the National Assembly with a positive  conclusion.

The Cabinet of Ministers approved the draft budget of Armenia for  2019 on September 27. Discussions on the main financial and economic  document in the National Assembly started on November 1. Presenting  the draft Atom Janjughazyan, Acting Minister of Finance of Armenia,  stated that the "Budget 2019" definitely cannot be called a "dream  budget." "Do we believe that our dream is to live in a country where  GDP per capita is projected at around $ 4,600, while in 1995 the  figure was $ 423? No, we claim more," he said. At the same time, as  he pointed out, the budget for the next year will be fully developed  in the format of program budgeting, which "promises" the country not  only quantitative indicators, but also qualitative ones. And reforms  in the field of tax policy will be designed, at a minimum, not to  hinder the development of the economy, and, in general, will enable  business to generate additional revenue for the state treasury.

Thus, according to the draft budget, in 2019 in conditions of  economic growth of 4.9% and growth of gross fixed capital formation  of 6.1%, the forecasted growth in exports of goods and services in  GDP will be 41% instead of the 38,7%. expected by the end of this  year. According to the results of 2019, per capita GDP in Armenia is  expected to reach $ 4,604 instead of $ 4,280 predicted by the end of  this year. At the same time, at the end of 2015, the figure was $  3,512. The nominal GDP of Armenia in 2019, according to the draft  budget for the next year, will grow by about 560 billion - from  6.193.0 billion drams expected by the end of 2018 ($ 12,752.6  million) to 6,756.2 billion drams ($ 13,717.5 million) pledged in the  project. GDP growth is expected to be ensured by a 0.5% increase in  net indirect taxes (0.6% in 2018), 2.5% growth in the services sector  (4% in the current year), construction will increase by 0, 4% (0.6%  in 2018) agrosector - 0.7% (0.6% in 2018), industry with an increase  of 0.8% (0.9% in the current fiscal year).

The following year's consolidated budget in terms of revenues is  estimated at 1.533.6 billion drams (without revenues from  inter-budgetary transfers) instead of 1.333.5 billion drams in 2018,  and in terms of expenses - 1.685.2 billion drams (without receipts  from inter-budgetary transfers), against 1.500.5 billion AMD this  year, the deficit is about 151.6 billion drams or 2.2% of GDP,  against 156.9 billion drams pledged for 2018 or 2.7% of GDP, but  revised to 103.5 billion drams (1 7% / GDP). In 2019, capital  spending from the current 2.4% of GDP will increase to 3.2% of GDP -  to 220 billion drams. Current expenditures will amount to 1,422.7  billion drams (21.1% / GDP), instead of the current 1.312.3 billion  drams (21.2% / GDP). The deflator index will be 104%, against 104.4%  predicted by the end of this year.  State treasury revenues will make  1,490.6 billion drams (1.354.8 billion drams this year) or 22.1% of  GDP, of which tax revenues and state fees will be 1, 399.2 billion  drams or 20.7% of GDP, instead of 1.255.8 billion drams or 20.3% of  GDP in 2018, expenses will amount 1 trillion 642.2 billion drams  against the current 1,458.3 billion drams. Community budgets for 2019  are estimated to be 138.9 billion drams (including official grants  from the state budget) in the line of income, and 138.9 billion drams  of expenses.  This year, a figure of 130.1 billion drams was laid.  Other budget revenues will be 52.4 billion drams next year, instead  of 23.9 billion drams for the current year, official grants - 39  billion. The ratio of investments to GDP in 2018 is projected at  23.3% instead of 23.6% in 2019. 12-month inflation is expected to be  at 4% with a permissible fluctuation limit of +/- 1.5%.

Next year, as a result of fiscal policy, the level of public debt  will be stabilized. Thus, it is expected that the ratio of public  debt to GDP will decrease from 55% predicted by the end of 2018 to  53.43% of GDP, and the ratio of government debt to GDP by the end of  2018 will be reduced from 53.4% to 49.7% . In general, by the end of  2019, the state debt will grow to $ 7.468 billion with the expected  budget for the current year of about $ 7.2 billion, or $ 7.053  million revised by the Ministry of Finance or 55% of GDP, and the  government debt will make $ 6 billion 844.5 million as of December  31, 2019, as noted in the budget draft for the next year, the figure  will reach $ 7.468 billion (estimated exchange rate of the Armenian  dram to the dollar $ 1 = 483.38 drams ). In 2018, it is expected to  attract credit resources in the amount of $ 446 million, of which $  31 million through the Central Bank. In 2019, it is planned to raise  $ 512 million, through the Central Bank line $ 21 million.