ArmInfo.The CBA intends to continue the monetary stimulus policy, the regulator said, related to maintaining the refinancing rate at 6%. However, stimulating monetary conditions will be gradually neutralized in the medium term.
According to estimates of the Central Bank Council, such a policy is justified in the context of predicted macroeconomic development and to ensure the target level of inflation. It is expected that inflation will be kept at the lower threshold of the allowable range with stabilization in the forecast period near the target level of 4%. In October of this year. inflation was fixed at 0.1% with annual inflation of 2.8%.
The Central Bank estimates that in the coming months the inflationary environment will be sustainable and annual inflation will remain in the allowable range closer to the minimum threshold. Based on the fact that in international markets the main commodities inflationary environment has somewhat weakened, the CBA does not expect inflation pressures from the external sector in the coming months.
At the same time, the growth trends of the world economy persist, in the conditions of which the central banks of the leading countries are gradually tightening monetary conditions.
The Central Bank Board stated that in the second quarter of 2018, economic activity weakened somewhat, mainly due to the decline in gross agricultural production and the slowdown in the growth rate of the construction sector. At the same time, the Central Bank estimates that the ongoing fiscal policy, as before, has a restrained effect on domestic demand, which will be more pronounced in 2019.
According to estimates of the Central Bank Board, in the forecast period, the risks of ensuring inflation tend to decrease, which is due to both external and internal factors. In the case of risks of deviation of inflation and economic development from the projected scenario, the Central Bank will adjust monetary conditions accordingly to ensure price stability.
Note that on November 13, 2018, the Central Bank once again chose not to change the refinancing rate. It remains at 6% from February 2017. Along with this, the rates on Lombard repo are kept - 7.5% and deposits attracted from banks - 4.5%. The refinancing rate was revised in 2017 on February 14, when it was reduced from 6.25% to 6%, in parallel with which the Lombard repo rates decreased from 7.75% to 7.5% and deposits attracted from banks - from 4.75% to 4.5%, while maintaining these levels to this day. Prior to this, at the end of 2016, on December 27, the refinancing rate was reduced from 6.5% to 6.25%, along with a decrease in Lombard repo rates - from 8% to 7.75% and deposits attracted from banks - from 5% up to 4.75%.