ArmInfo. On November 19, the Government of Armenia at an extraordinary meeting approved amendments to the draft law "On the State Budget for 2019". According to the Acting Minister of Finance of Armenia Atom Janjughazyan during the hearings of the draft budget in the relevant committees of parliament 146 proposals were received from parliamentarians.
Such factors as changes in the exchange rate of the currency, as well as expectations for extra-budgetary funds also influenced the forecasted figures. As Janjughazyan reminded, according to the RA Law on the Budget System, the RA Law on the Budget is submitted to the National Assembly in accordance with calculations as of September 1, after which in the second reading, as a result of a change in the exchange rate, some adjustments are made . Considering this fact as well, the Ministry of Finance revised its forecasts for both the state budget revenues for 2019 and expenses: expenses were increased by about 5 billion drams - from previously forecasted 1,642,189.7 billion to 1,648,063.1 billion drams (1, 464.2 billion drams in 2018, 1,360.1 billion in 2017 and 1,420.6 billion in 2016). State treasury revenues also increased adequately - from 1,490,589.7 billion to 1,496,463.1 billion drams (22.1%) of GDP, of which tax revenues and state fees would amount to 1,401.8 billion drams (instead of the early forecasted 1, 399.2 billion drams or 20.7% of GDP, and 1.255.8 billion drams or 20.3% of GDP in 2018). Other budget revenues will be 55.1 billion drams next year (instead of 52.4 billion drams pledged in the initial draft and 23.9 billion drams for the current year, the official grants in the updated version of the draft will grow to 39.5 billion from earlier expected 39 billion. The target grants will amount to 30 billion drams, while the grants within the framework of European cooperation will be reduced to 858.4 million drams instead of the earlier 896, 9 million due to changes in the exchange rate of the currency.
Thus, according to the draft budget, in 2019 in conditions of economic growth of 4.9% and growth of gross fixed capital formation of 6.1%, the forecasted growth in exports of goods and services in GDP will be 41% instead of the 38,7% expected by the end of this year. According to the results of 2019, per capita GDP in Armenia is expected to reach $ 4,604 instead of $ 4,280 forecasted by the end of this year. At the same time, at the end of 2015, the figure was $ 3,512. The nominal GDP of Armenia in 2019, according to the draft budget for the next year, will grow by about 560 billion - from 6.193.0 billion drams expected by the end of 2018 ($ 12,752.6 million) to 6,756.2 billion drams ($ 13,717.5 million) pledged in the project. Community budgets for 2019 are estimated to be 138.9 billion drams (including official grants from the state budget) in the line of income, and 138.9 billion drams are expenses. This year, a figure of 130.1 billion drams was laid. The ratio of investment to GDP in 2018 is projected at 23.3% instead of 23.6% in 2019. 12-month inflation is expected to be at the level of 4% with an allowable fluctuation limit of 1.5%.
The deficit will total about 151.6 billion drams or 2.2% of GDP, against 156.9 billion drams pledged for 2018 or 2.7% of GDP, but revised to 103.5 billion drams (1.7% / GDP ). 54.1 billion drams will be financed using internal resources, and 97.5 (instead of the initial 91.4 billion drams) by external sources. The deflator index will be 104%, against 104.4% forecasted by the end of this year.
As a result of parliamentary adjustments, the Ministry of Transport will receive more funds- from 21,529,815, 4 thousand drams to 22,741,755.6 thousand drams, Ministry of Education will be allocated 126 859 192.4 thousand drams instead of 126 834 451, 6 thousand drams. Expenses for social and cultural events will be increased: the Ministry of Culture will receive by 435 million drams more - up to 15.584 billion drams, sports sector will receive instead of the previously planned 2.6 billion drams 2.8 billion drams, health care by 12.3 million more - up to 87 , 1 billion drams, allocations of science will grow by 2.5 billion drams to 16.8 billion drams. Funding of security officials will also increase from 345.062 to 345.185 million drams.
Next year, as a result of fiscal policy, the level of public debt will be stabilized. Thus, it is expected that the ratio of public debt to GDP will decline from 55% projected by the end of 2018 to 53.43% of GDP, and the ratio of government debt to GDP by the end of 2018 will be reduced from 53.4% to 49.7 % In general, by the end of 2019, the state debt will grow to $ 7.468 billion with the expected budget for the current year of about $ 7.2 billion, or $ 7.053 million revised by the Ministry of Finance or 55% of GDP, and the government debt will make $ 6 billion 844.5 million (the estimated exchange rate of the Armenian dram to the dollar is $ 1 = 483.38 drams). In 2018, it is expected to attract credit resources in the amount of $ 446 million, of which $ 31 million through the Central Bank. In 2019, it is planned to raise $ 512 million, through the Central Bank line $ 21 million. About 10% of budget expenditures will be spent on servicing state debt - about 158 billion drams.
To note, the draft budget of Armenia for the 2019 year was approved by the government on September 27. Discussions on the main financial and economic document in the National Assembly started on November 1. The document is for the first time fully built in the format of program budgeting, which "promises" the country not only quantitative indicators, but also qualitative ones. The profile committee of the parliament on November 12, with a positive conclusion sent the draft budget for 2019to the discussion of the plenary session of the National Assembly. Tomorrow, November 21, it is expected that the main financial and economic document of the country will be approved by Parliament.