ArmInfo. The volume of total foreign investment in the real sector of the Armenian economy grew by 4.3% in the third quarter of 2018, reaching $ 548.3 million, while in the previous year the quarterly growth was only 0.5%.
In their structure, the volume of FDI jumped in the third quarter of this year by 64.5%, amounting to $ 124.3 million, against modest growth - by 6.4% in the same quarter of 2017. In y-o-y terms (Q3 2018 vs. Q3 2017), FDI sank by 12.9%, while total foreign investment growth by 7.3%.
According to the RA Statistical Committee, in January-September 2018, compared with the same period of 2017, the volume of total foreign investments in the real sector of the Armenian economy grew by 10.8% to $ 1.7 billion. FDI in total foreign investments for the first 9 months of 2018 accounted for 22, 6% (vs. 30.7% a year earlier) or $ 385.4 million, which is lower than the figure for the same period of 2017 by 18.4%.
According to statistics, Russia holds the lead in terms of total investments and FDI - for the first 9 months of 2018 $ 589.9 million (with a y-o-y growth of 14.2%), including FDI - $ 233.8 million (with a y-o-y decline of 4%). Germany holds the second position - $ 433.5 million (with a y-o-y growth of 64.2%), of which $ 39.7 million is FDI (with a y-o-y growth of 78.4%). TOP-3, as before, closes Cyprus - $ 67.5 million (with a y-o-y decline by 69.9%), of which FDI - $ 19.4 million (with a y-o-y growth of 40.5%). In the third quarter of 2018 alone, the volume of total investments from Russia to Armenia increased by 24.8% (with an increase in FDI by 40.2%), from Germany decreased by 21.6% (with an increase in FDI 4.2-fold), and Cyprus decreased by 30.6% (with an increase in FDI 3.5-fold).
In the volume of total foreign investment, Russia accounted for 34.6% for the first 9 months of 2018, Germany- 25.4%, Cyprus -4%, and in the total FDI share, the share of these countries is 60.7%, 10.3% and 5% respectively.
Considering the economy sectors, the most significant decline of investments was recorded in the mining industry, where the lion's share of investment comes from Jersey. In particular, the total investment (and this is entirely FDI) from Jersey at the end of September of this year amounted to 138.7 billion drams ($ 287.2 million - gross flow for 1988-2018), unchanged in volume by the end of September, with no investments observed from the second quarter. Out of this amount, in 9 months of 2018 alone, $ 42.8 million of investments came from Jersey, all of which were made in Q1. And if in the II and III quarters of 2018 investments from Jersey did not arrive, then a year earlier the impressive growth in the II quarter by 4.5-fold slowed sharply in the III quarter to 5.3%. The investments from Jersey for 9 months of 2018, compared with the same period of 2017, sank by 65%. This reduction, including the complete lack of investments from Jersey in the second and third quarters, is most likely due to the actual suspension of the Amulsar program (due to the protests against Lydian Armenia's activities, because of the so-called "new environmental factors" identified by the inspection body-ed. note). According to the World Bank forecasts updated in October of this year, the share of net foreign investment in Armenia's GDP in 2018 will be 3%, with an increase in 2019-2020 to 3.5-3.9%, against an actual 2% in 2017. To recall, in 2017 the real sector of the Armenian economy received foreign investments in the total amount of $ 2.3 billion, of which $ 677 million in the form of FDI. Moreover, Russia accounted for 34.4% of total investments ($ 790.5 million), and 46.8% ($ 317 million) in FDI. In the first half of 2017 alone, the total foreign investment in the real economy of Armenia amounted to $ 1.03 billion, of which FDI was $ 329.6 million, and Russia's share in them reached 36.5% (in total) and 61% (in FDI) respectively.
To note, RA Statistical Committee publishes data on foreign investments once a quarter, indicating them in dram equivalent and as a gross flow - accumulated volume (without redemptions) from 1988 to the reporting date, in this case until September 30, 2018. For the preparation of this material, ArmInfo experts independently calculated semi-annual and quarterly data, taking as a basis the statistical data of the gross flow in the corresponding periods of 2018 and 2017. (The estimated exchange rate of dram as of September 30, 2018 was 482.71 AMD/$ 1).