ArmInfo. "ArmSwissBank" CJSC occupies one of the leading positions in the debt securities market of Armenia, both as an underwriter and market maker. Considering that recently, the Nasdaq OMX Armenia Stock Exchange carried out its rebranding, during which the unpromising refusal from Nasdaq OMX words in the name of the exchange took place, and the exchange was renamed simply OJSC Armenia Securities Exchange (AMX), I would like to hope that not everything is so bad. It is still difficult to say whether this, seemingly, forced step will lead towards any changes in the organized capital market of the country. Nevertheless, the correspondent of ArmInfo spoke with one of the country's leading specialists, with the Director of the Investment Department of ArmSwissBank CJSC Karen Turyan about what is happening in the market today, what are the trends of its development.
Mr. Turyan, how would you characterize the current state of the Armenian capital market? Why, in your opinion, the function of stimulating the economic growth through the capital market is not developed?
By saying the capital market, we first of all mean not only the bond market, but stocks as well, which we don't have, and which are not foreseen in the near future. Because it makes no sense to accumulate a large amount of money for the industry, as it can be stated that there is no as such in Armenia. I am not talking about the manufacturing industry, but about engineering, chemistry and other industrial sectors. While for other areas, joint-stock companies are practically not needed. That is, in fact there is no capital market as such practically operating in Armenia. There is a debt securities market, represented by corporate and government bonds, which is in the same unenviable situation in which our whole society is. This is neigher good, nor bad. We have what we have. There must be development, which, unfortunately,we still lack . And today, we are still "spending" by inertia what was created in Soviet times, in Soviet Armenia.
But for economic development in today's realities, government bonds do not play a special role ...
Government bonds can play a significant role if the government knows where these funds should be invested. Money is not a goal, but serves as a means of achieving this goal. The state should have at least a five-year development plan. But there are no global projects as such. Although there should have been. For example, the state could borrow money on the security of government bonds for the implementation of specific projects.
In addition, there are Eurobonds in the market, issued in dollars with a maturity in 2020 and 2025, which are also very interesting if considering from the point of view of investment. So do you think that the capital market does not fulfill the function of stimulating economic growth because of lack of large projects?
Naturally. There are two options - you can borrow money, <spend> it, and GDP growth will be ensured through imports. But it is also possible to invest these funds into a large project, to build something, to change, the return on which will be noticeable for the state in the medium and long term. But we still do not see this.
And with the full introduction of the funded pension system, in your opinion, is it likely that any changes may occur in the Armenian capital market?
When there will be additional money - the first and easiest development scenario is an increase in domestic public debt. I guess the state will borrow more under its dram bonds. But ideally, the government should have a 5-year, 15-year development plan, on the basis of which the relevant bonds will be issued, it will be possible to set u a certain sovereign fund, where both individuals and legal entities can invest money.
But activity on the capital market is actually observed in terms of corporate bonds, although even here from the moment of launch, a decline in profitability has been recorded to this day (from about 10% to 5%). Could this lead to a reduction in corporate bond market participants? If not, what turn of events should we expect?
Ultimately, we have this very result. Because now there are no new trenches. The yield on bonds in Armenia is rather low. If the Federal Reserve has set rates at 2.25-2.50%, short-term government bonds are quoted at a repayment rate of about 6%in Armenia,,corporate bonds also have low yields, which, I believe, will remain at this level. This will continue until the Fed raises rates, which will lead to an outflow of capital or the situation will continue until long-term financing projects appear in Armenia.
In your opinion, will the rebranding of the NASDAQ OMX Stock Exchange lead to changes in the capital market?
The changes will affect the activities on the platform itself, which will be more consumer-oriented, because now it is very difficult to work with the existing one. A stock exchange is just a platform connecting intermediaries, creating the conditions for free trade and the formation of quotations. It may become easier to work, but no more results should be expected. After all, only real projects lead to an increase in the number of issuers and market activation.
And how, in your opinion, will the bond market of Armenia develop in 2019?
I believe that the state will rapidly increase its domestic debt. The Ministry of Finance, in turn, hopes to issue a large tranche of 10-year bonds, plus in the arsenal there are bonds with a 30-year maturity. In any case, the market still remains. Demand for dram bonds from banking institutions and individuals will maintain. In particular, it is worth noting that we also have individuals who hold their deposits in government bonds. The market is very small, but there is confidence in it. And then we'll see.
And in conclusion, I would like to talk about the plans of Armswissbank for 2019. What projects has the Bank planned for investment banking? How many bond issuers have already managed to serve as an underwriter and market maker, and how many applications for new placements have already been received?
Last year we were quite active. And today the bank has so far no plans to issue securities. There have been no applications for placement of bonds by issuers either.
In general, the year 2018 was very difficult and politically volatile. However, it did not affect the economy of Armenia, I don't know whether this is good or bad. After all, first of all political events influence the financial system that works, and the financial system works when there is industrial development. In such realities, any political event will automatically be reflected in changes in interest rates and other indicators. But when we "squeezed" to the end, and there is nothing left to "press", then only some catastrophic situations can have a tangible impact. There are n such situations, and I hopethere will not.