ArmInfo. International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Armenia's 2015 GDP growth up to 2,5% with further slow down up to 2.2% in 2016, Mark Horton, IMF Mission Chief to Armenia said in a press-conference held on September 25. He noted that in 2016 a negative influence of the external factors will remain on the Armenia's economy. Besides, he thinks, that slow rates of bank crediting of the real sector and comparatively high interest rates will play their role.
IMF revised forecast is a result of a fact that Armenia plans to build a copper factory in the terms of a governmental program and preliminary agreement on investments with Chinese partners. Besides, this year an unprecedented growth of farm produce in favorable climate conditions has been registered, due to which the economic growth raised up to 4.1% in the first half of the year.
However, Mr. Horton thinks, that these factors have one-time nature and will not appear in 2016. Based on this, the revised forecast significantly differs from the actual indicator (in January-August of 2015 economic activity has slow downed the growth up to 3,9% -editor's note based on statistical data)
It should be mentioned that IMF has discussed with the Armenian Government a possibility to revise the forecast for Armenian GDP towards improvement, and possible correction of budget indications
for 2016. That is why a planned meeting with journalists has been postponed to September 25, as the IMF representatives are going to meet the Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan.
To recall, in its June forecast IMF changed the expectations on the Armenian economy on stagnation, compared to the last year April forecast of -1% .
To note, according to the World Bank (WB) latest forecast, the economic growth of Armenia in 2015 would make 0.8% against expected 3.3%. The European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) decreased its forecast from the zero level to - 1.5%. The Asian Development Bank projects growth of the Armenian economy of up to 1.6% in 2015 and the Eurasian Development Bank - of 0.8%. The Fitch International Rating Agency forecasted moderate recession of Armenian Economy in its recent review in 2015, and the Moody's - growth of 2.3%.
According to the Armenian Central Bank's updated forecast, the economic growth in the country will increase to 2.8%-3.6% versus previously announced slackening to 1.6%- 2.6%. In 2016, the economic
growth rates will not change - 2.5%-3.4%. In 2017, GDP will gradually increase to 3.5%-4.5%. According to the Law on the State Budget of Armenia 2015, real GDP growth is envisaged at 4.1%, with 4% (+1.5%) inflation. The nominal volume of GDP will total 4867.5bln drams amid 3.3% GDP deflator.