ArmInfo. For the countries with strong economy an economy growth from 1% to 3% is fair enough for ensuring adequate living standards, although for Armenian citizens the change will be considerable only if the economy growth is higher than 9%, Gagik Makaryan, Chairman of the Republican Union of Employers of Armenia, told journalists on October 16.
The expert foresees economic growth by 3% for Armenia by the end of the year, noting that this will be determined by the increase in the share of agricultural sector, industry and construction in GDP, According to him, these fields of economy showed definitive indicators in the current year. "In the created limiting conditions, economy growth by 3%, which is about 200-300 million dollars, is a piddling sum for solving crucial issues of Armenia's real sector", Makaryan thinks.
In Makaryan's opinion the country's next year budget will total about 2.5-3 billion dollars, one third of which (more then 800 million) are provided for implementing social programs, and not economic ones. The expert called such economy non-perspective, noting that numerous charitable programs held by Diaspora contribute to the positive indicators of Armenia's budget.
To recall, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced, that it will upgrade its forecast for Armenia's GDP growth by positive 1-3% for 2015. versus anticipated 1.5% slowdown.
Earlier, International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised Armenia's 2015 GDP growth up to 2,5% with further slow down up to 2.2% in 2016. According to the World Bank (WB) latest forecast, the economic growth
of Armenia in 2015 would make 0.8% against expected 3.3%. The European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) decreased its forecast from the zero level to - 1.5%. The Asian Development Bank projects growth of the Armenian economy of up to 1.6% in 2015 and the Eurasian Development Bank - of 0.8%. The Fitch International Rating Agency revised its forecast of moderate recession of Armenian Economy for 1.5% growth in 2015, and the Moody's - growth of 2.3%. According to the Armenian Central Bank's updated forecast, the economic growth in the country will increase to 2.8%- 3.6% versus previously announced slackening to 1.6%- 2.6%. In 2016, the economic growth rates will not change - 2.5%-3.4%. In 2017, GDP will gradually increase to 3.5%-4.5%.
According to the Law on the State Budget of Armenia 2015, real GDP growth is envisaged at 4.1%, with 4% (+1.5%) inflation. The nominal volume of GDP will total 4867.5bln drams amid 3.3% GDP deflator.
According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, the economic activity in Armenia grew by annual 4.2% for Jan-July 2015, and by 9.2% in July only.