ArmInfo. Economic activity in Armenia was higher since the beginning of 2016 then forecasted, due to this one can state that 2016 will be successful year for the economy and rates of economic growth will exceed 3% contrary to the forecasted indicators. Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia Vache Gabrielyan gave this assessment in his speech made today in the parliament.
According to Gabrielyan, positive shifts were registered in 2015 and the first months of 2016 in the economy of the country first of all related to reduction of deficit of the foreign trade balance due to fall of import and growth of export potential. "Never before the trade balance of the country was so successful, however it is obvious that fall of import is related to reduction of consumption because of signs of crisis and first of all because of drop of private transfers", the deputy minister emphasized. According to his forecasts the rates of economy growth will be stable in 2017 and possibly in 2018, however he found it unreasonable to give forecasts for upcoming three years. Answering to the MPs questions Gabrielyan advised not to confuse the fact of fall of consumption and the aggregate demand with the economic growth.
To recall, Central Bank of Armenia forecasts slackening of economy growth in 2016 to 1.5-2.6% versus previously forecasted 1.6-2.7%. This forecast is given in the monetary policy program of the CBA for Q1 2016. However starting from 2017 the CBA expects acceleration of economy growth rates due to efficient implementation of the governmental program on stimulating the investments and export, gradual improvement of external economic situation and influence of the conducted structural reforms, as a result of which the economy growth may reach 3-4.5% by the end of 2017. To note the inflow of transfers of physical entities to Armenia dropped by 24% in 2015 to 1.6 bln USD, with 60% being Russia's share.