Saturday, August 20 2016 13:47
Svetlana Hovsepyan

On August 15-19 Armenian dram revaluated against USD from 476 to 474.5AMD/1USD

On August 15-19 Armenian dram revaluated against USD from 476 to  474.5AMD/1USD

ArmInfo. On August 15-19, dynamics of USD purchase changed sharply from 3.2% decline to 54.1% growth, while USD sale demonstrated 9.2% decline from previous 2.7% growth in the intrabank market of Armenia, amid accelerated decline of EUR purchase and variety of trends of RUR purchase and sale. In the meantime the interbank forex market declined weekly amount of  transactions threefold (following almost fivefold growth last week). As a result AMD revaluated against USD from 476 to 474.5 AMD/$1, devaluating against EUR from 531 to 538 AMD/1EUR and against RUR from 7.4 to 7.5 AMD/1RUR. Since the beginning of the year the foreign  exchange market showed signs of life rarely making one at a time transaction between March and May: $100 thousand in March, $2.950 mln in April and $800 thousand in May, after which it was passive. In H1, Central Bank bought USD in foreign exchange market in June ($ 50.2 mln) and April ($ 2.4 mln) and sold in January and February ($ 53.1 mln and $41.5 mln respectively). As a result, in the first half of 2016, AMD appreciated from 482 to 477 AMD/$1, depreciating in mid Feb (from 482 to 496 AMD/$1 on Feb 12), in early April (from 479 to 484.5 AMD/$1), in mid May (from 479 to 480.5 AMD/$1 on May 12), in early and in late June (from 478 to 479 AMD/$1 on June 3, and from 476 to 477 AMD/$1 on June 30), maintaining the 477 AMD/$1 level in the first half of July and totaling 476AMD/1USDon July 24. However, within the last week of the month, the national currency devaluated to 477AMD/1USD. Since early August AMD started to revaluate and stood at 474.5AMD/$1 as of August 19. 

The press office of the Central Bank of Armenia has told ArmInfo that the transactions on the interbank forex market have certainly decreased on August 15-19. The highest amount was registered on Monday - $1.3mln, and the smallest amount was fixed on Friday - $300,000.  On August 15-19, the total amount of transactions in the intrabank forex market was $4mln (versus $11.4 mln a week before), forming an average AMD/USD exchange rate at 475.65 AMD/1USD (versus the previous 476.48 AMD/1USD). The source says that on August 12-19, the USD purchase transactions on the intrabank market increased by 54.1% (versus 3.2% decline a week before). The EUR purchase dropped by 25.6% (versus 11.8% decline a week before).  Sales of USD and EUR fell by 9.2% and 3% respectively (versus 2.7% and 8.4% growth a week before, respectively). RUR purchase grew to 7% from 2% amid 6.8% sales (vs 6.7% a week ago).  Eventually, $94.4mln was bought at the average exchange rate of 474.93 AMD/1USD, 6.1 mln EUR was bought at 531.54 AMD/1EUR, and 1.3 bln RUR - at 7.36 AMD/1RUR. At the same  time, $69.2 mln was sold at 476.13 AMD/$1, 10.02 mln EUR - at 535.42 AMD/1EUR, and 376.7 mln RUR - at 7.48 AMD/1RUR. 

During the previous week (August 8-13), the Armenian banks provided AMD loans worth 31.7 bln and USD loans worth $39.9 mln. As compared with the previous week (August 1-6), USD loans declined by 41.7%, amid 11% decline of the ones in terms of AMD. Meanwhile, during the previous week the dynamics was diverse: USD loans grew by 21.4% while ones in terms of AMD declined by 2%. 

To recall, in 2015, on the retail foreign exchange market of Armenia AMD weakened against USD from 477 to 482 AMD/$1 on average and strengthened against EUR from 571.5 to 529 AMD/1EUR and against Russian ruble from 8.2 to 6.9 AMD/1 RUR.  Between December 14 and 28, the Central Bank made almost daily interventions.  AMD depreciated amid decline of foreign trade turnover (by 20.6%), while import dropped more significantly (by 26.5%) than export (by 3.9%) as well as the decline in transfer inflow to Armenia more than by 30%, and  this happened in conditions of low buying capacity of the population and low economic activity in the country.  Since early 2016, AMD started depreciating again on the retail foreign exchange market of Armenia to 496AMD/$1, however since March it strengthened and stood  at 482 AMD/1USD by March 25. Later, AMD started revaluating again since mid-April. By April 29, AMD appreciated against USD to 479 AMD/$1 and this trend continued in May. By May 31, AMD appreciated against USD to 478 AMD/$1, and against EUR to 532 AMD/1EUR, at the  same time depreciating against RUR to 7.3 AMD/1RUR. The first half of June AMD demonstrated moderate depreciation, followed by appreciation:  thus by June 30 the AMD stood at 477 AMD/$1, 529 AMD/1EUR, and 7.4 AMD/1 RUR. In July AMD was still at 477 against USD, depreciating against EUR to 532 AMD/1EUR and appreciating against Russian Ruble to 7.1 AMD/1RUR. In 1-19 August, AMD appreciated against USD to 474.5 AMD/1USD and depreciated against EUR to 538 AMD/1EUR and against RUR to 7.5 AMD/1RUR.

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