Saturday, November 5 2016 09:27
Svetlana Hovsepyan

Dram devaluates against dollar and EUR revaluating against Ruble

ArmInfo. On October 31-November 4, the amount of transactions on the interbank forex market of Armenia declined by 43% after a 33.2% growth in previous week. At the same time, on the intrabank market the purchase/sale of dollars and EUR experienced different dynamics, while interest towards RUR transaction fell. Thus, in the current week, AMD devaluated against USD from 476 to 477 AMD/USD1 and EUR from 519 to 530 AMD/1EUR revaluating against RUR to 7.5 AMD/1RUR from 7.6 AMD/1RUR in the previous two weeks. In overall, in Jan- Sept 2016, AMD appreciated against USD from 482 to 474 AMD/USD1, depreciating against EUR from 529 to 532 AMD/1EUR, and against RUR from 6.9 to 7.5 AMD/1RUR. In October AMD devaluated against USD from to 476 AMD/USD1, revalued against EUR to 521 AMD/1EUR, while AMD/RUR rate remained the unchanged-7.5 AMD/1RUR.  Since the beginning of the year the foreign exchange market showed signs of life rarely making one at a time transaction between March and May:  USD100 thousand in March, USD2.950 mln in April and USD800 thousand in May, after which it was passive. In Jan-Aug 2016, Central Bank bought USD on the foreign exchange market in April (USD2.4 mln), June (USD50.2 mln) and August ($19.8 mln) and sold in January and February (USD53.1 mln and USD41.5mln, respectively).

As the press office of the Central Bank of Armenia has told ArmInfo, on October 31-November 4, the interbank forex market declined the daily amounts of its transactions, with the largest amount registered on Thursday - $3.095 mln and the smallest amount was on Monday - $800 thousand. The total amount of transactions on the interbank forex market for Oct 31-November 4 declined to $9.546 mln (versus the previous week's $16.650 mln), forming the average exchange rate of 476.38 AMD/1USD (versus the previous 475.60 AMD/1USD). In the meantime, on the intrabank forex market USD purchase sharply declined by 38% (versus 9.7% growth a week before), while EUR purchase on the contrary grew by 17% (versus 33% decline a week before), USD sales increased by 6% (versus 8.9% decline a week before) and EUR sales declined by 30.7% (versus 6.7% growth a week before).  At the same time, RUR purchase on the intrabank forex market fell 9.8% versus 8.3% decline a week before, while RUR sales decreased sharply by 15% after 47.7% growth a week before. As a result, USD purchase made up $68.01 mln at the average exchange rate of 475.01 AMD/USD1, EUR purchase - 7.6 mln at 522.07 AMD/1EUR, and RUR purchase 961 mln RUR at 7.47 AMD/1RUR, whereas USD sales amounted to 88.03 mln at 476.40 AMD/USD1, EUR sales - 9.7mln at 526.15 AMD/1EUR, and RUR sales - 443.2 mln RUR at 7.57 AMD/1RUR.

According to the source, during the previous week (October 24-29), the Armenian banks provided AMD loans worth 88.3bln AMD and USD loans worth 55.3 mln. The weekly dynamics of AMD and USD loans was upward.  Particularly, amount of AMD loans grew 81.7% and the amount of USD loans - 65%, versus last week's 9.5% and 39%, decline. 

To recall, in 2015, on the retail foreign exchange market of Armenia AMD weakened against USD from 477 to 482 AMD/USD1 on average and strengthened against EUR from 571.5 to 529 AMD/1EUR and against Russian ruble from 8.2 to 6.9 AMD/1 RUR.  Between December 14 and 28, the Central Bank made almost daily interventions.  AMD depreciated amid decline of foreign trade turnover (by 20.6%), while import dropped more significantly (by 26.5%) than export (by 3.9%) as well as the decline in transfer inflow to Armenia more than by 30%, and this happened in conditions of low buying capacity of the population and low economic activity in the country.  Since early 2016, AMD started depreciating again on the retail foreign exchange market of Armenia to 496AMD/USD1, however since March it strengthened and stood at 482 AMD/1USD by March 25. In overall in H1 2016 AMD appreciated to 477 AMD/USD1 from 482 AMD/USD1, devaluating in mid Feb (to 496 AMD/USD1 from 482AMD/USD1 on Feb 12), in the first decade of April (to 484.5AMD/USD1 from 479 AMD/USD1), in mid May (to 480.5 AMD/USD1 from 479 AMD/USD1-on May 12), in the early and late June (to 479 AMD/USD1 from 478 on June 3 and to 477 AMD/USD1 from 476 AMD/USD1 on June 30). In July AMD appreciated to 476 AMD/USD1 only in the beginning of the third decade, after which it stood at the initial level of 477 AMD/USD1. In August, AMD demonstrated revaluation - 475 AMD/USD1 by August 31 and stood at this level in the first ten days of September, after which it further revaluated. Thus, by September 30, AMD appreciated against USD and EUR to 474 AMD/USD1 and 532 AMD/1EUR, respectively. Along with it, AMD depreciated against RUR to 7.5 AMD/1RUR. In October AMD devaluated against USD (to 476 AMD/USD1), revaluated against EUR-to 521 AMD/1EUR, while AMD/RUR exchange rate remained unchanged-7.5 AMD/1RUR. As of November 4, the exchange rates were as follows:  477AMD/1USD, 530AMD/1EUR, and 7.5AMD/1RUR.

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