Wednesday, April 12 2017 19:35
Naira Badalian

IMF forecasts GDP growth in Armenia to 2.9% by 2017

IMF forecasts GDP growth in Armenia to 2.9% by 2017

ArmInfo. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), considering the level of economic activity recorded in Armenia in the first quarter of 2017, predicts GDP growth to 2.9% by the end of the year. The head of the IMF mission for Armenia Hossein Samiei told journalists on April 12 in Yerevan.

"Starting from 2014, Armenia's economy is under the influence of external negative shocks," Samiei said after studying the general state of the country's economy. In particular, the volume of transfers entering the country has decreased significantly, and the prices for the main product exported from the country - copper concentrate - have fallen sharply in the world market. This led to a decrease in the country's balance of payments and the solvency of its citizens. As a result, there was a decrease in the level of both domestic consumption and local investment. "Taking into account these factors, the GDP growth in 2016 was only 0.2%, which was accompanied by the growth of social inequality and deflationary pressure," he said, adding that in total, all these circumstances had a negative impact on the country's budget revenues.  However, The IMF notes positive signals in the Armenian economy and hopes for structural reforms. And currently, he said, the increase in the forecast is also due to a higher level of tax collection, an increase in transfers to the country and an increase in the price of copper in the world market. High expectations, in addition, are due to higher than planned in December 2016, the level of implementation of capital programs funded from external sources. In the absence of financing, growth would have been projected at 2%, he said.

Meanwhile, according to Samiei, Armenia is quite capable of improving the forecasted indicators to 4%, and even to 6-7%, if it improves the competitive conditions in the country, as a result of which it will be able to activate the economy. "Thus, we believe that in 2017 economic growth will be fixed to 2.7-2.9%, and inflation by the end of the year will approach the 2% mark," Samiei said.

At the same time, in the annual context, the head of the mission did not rule out the occurrence of risks. He recalled that as early as the beginning of 2016, there were positive expectations regarding the economic growth in Armenia. However, following the results of the last two quarters of 2016, there have already been negative trends, as a result of which almost zero economic growth was registered.

According to the state budget of the Republic of Armenia, economic growth in 2017 is planned at 3.2%, nominal GDP growth is within 5%, with a deflation index of 1.7% (against 2.4% in 2016), a deficit of 150.1 billion AMD. The profitable part of the state budget of Armenia in 2017 will increase to 1 trillion.  210 billion AMD, expenditure - to reduce to 1 trillion. 360 billion, the ratio of income/GDP - 22.4% (against income/GDP - 21.8% in 2016). According to the latest data, the Central Bank of Armenia improved its economic growth forecast for 2017 to 3.2-4.4% from the previously forecasted 2.2-3.2%. The World Bank in January forecast laid the GDP growth of Armenia in 2017 by 2.7%. EDB expects GDP growth of Armenia in 2017 by 2.9%. Fitch forecasted the growth of Armenia's GDP in 2017 by 2.1%, with acceleration to 3.1% in 2018, the United Nations, to 2.7%, and ADB - 2.2%.


News
Iranian entrepreneurs are interested in opening joint ventures with  Armenia in a number of areasIranian entrepreneurs are interested in opening joint ventures with  Armenia in a number of areas
Major Armenian-Russian business forum to be held in YerevanMajor Armenian-Russian business forum to be held in Yerevan
Gyumri Shirak Airport is ready to serve European budget flightsGyumri Shirak Airport is ready to serve European budget flights
Mher Grigoryan reports on certain difficulties in negotiations with  GazpromMher Grigoryan reports on certain difficulties in negotiations with  Gazprom
Standing Parliamentary Committee on Financial-Credit and Budgetary  Affairs approved Artak Manukyan`s candidacy for the position of  member of the Central Bank CouncilStanding Parliamentary Committee on Financial-Credit and Budgetary  Affairs approved Artak Manukyan`s candidacy for the position of  member of the Central Bank Council
Mher Grigoryan: In terms of the opening of railways, solutions began  to be consideredMher Grigoryan: In terms of the opening of railways, solutions began  to be considered
GeoProMining  announces  completion of the second stage of Agarak CMC  modernization project GeoProMining  announces  completion of the second stage of Agarak CMC  modernization project 
IMF sharply improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 to 6.5%, but warns: IMF sharply improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 to 6.5%, but warns: "Downside risks remain elevated" 
Economy Minister considers Central Bank`s updated economic forecasts  as pessimisticEconomy Minister considers Central Bank`s updated economic forecasts  as pessimistic
Armenian government to allocate about 357.5 million drams to complete  15 subvention programsArmenian government to allocate about 357.5 million drams to complete  15 subvention programs
Economy Minister on the situation with Iranian trucks: We have a  Economy Minister on the situation with Iranian trucks: We have a  "Plan B"
 Armenian accountants and auditors can grow professionally with help  of British Association of Chartered Certified Accountants Armenian accountants and auditors can grow professionally with help  of British Association of Chartered Certified Accountants
Armenian government approves the ratification of the Agreement of the  CIS countries in the fight against IT crimesArmenian government approves the ratification of the Agreement of the  CIS countries in the fight against IT crimes
Armenia and Singapore exclude double taxationArmenia and Singapore exclude double taxation
Government of Armenia ratified the agreement between the governments  of the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Malta on the avoidance  of double taxationGovernment of Armenia ratified the agreement between the governments  of the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Malta on the avoidance  of double taxation
The leadership of SRC of Armenia at a meeting with the head of the  FCS of the Russian Federation noted the special importance of  enhancing contactsThe leadership of SRC of Armenia at a meeting with the head of the  FCS of the Russian Federation noted the special importance of  enhancing contacts
American company Wabtec shows interest in the Armenian market American company Wabtec shows interest in the Armenian market 
Deputy Prime Minister on a possible increase in gas prices: Gazprom  insists that the amount of profit stipulated in the 2013 agreement  does not satisfy themDeputy Prime Minister on a possible increase in gas prices: Gazprom  insists that the amount of profit stipulated in the 2013 agreement  does not satisfy them
Drip irrigation. 5 questions and answers with Converse BankDrip irrigation. 5 questions and answers with Converse Bank
World Bank`s updated Groundswell report warns: Climate change could  force 216 million people to migrate within their own countries by  2050World Bank`s updated Groundswell report warns: Climate change could  force 216 million people to migrate within their own countries by  2050
Expert: The unprecedented rise in gas prices in Europe and EAEU  membership open new opportunities for ArmeniaExpert: The unprecedented rise in gas prices in Europe and EAEU  membership open new opportunities for Armenia
Central Bank of Armenia: In Jan-July 2021, the net inflow of  transfers from individuals increased by 78.5% per annumCentral Bank of Armenia: In Jan-July 2021, the net inflow of  transfers from individuals increased by 78.5% per annum
Efforts are underway to enhance seismic safety at Armenian NPPEfforts are underway to enhance seismic safety at Armenian NPP
EEC Forecast: In 2022, the negative foreign trade balance in the EAEU  will be reduced from $ 5.8 billion to $ 2.5 billion EEC Forecast: In 2022, the negative foreign trade balance in the EAEU  will be reduced from $ 5.8 billion to $ 2.5 billion 
Central Bank of Armenia: Consistent tightening of monetary conditions  has a sufficient impact on the regulation of progressive consumer  demand and on curbing of  inflationCentral Bank of Armenia: Consistent tightening of monetary conditions  has a sufficient impact on the regulation of progressive consumer  demand and on curbing of  inflation
Central Bank upgrades Armenia`s economic growth forecast for 2021 to  5.6%Central Bank upgrades Armenia`s economic growth forecast for 2021 to  5.6%
Central Bank Governor: Inflation in Armenia is more supply-drivenCentral Bank Governor: Inflation in Armenia is more supply-driven
Central Bank: Transfers from USA to Armenia are growing rapidlyCentral Bank: Transfers from USA to Armenia are growing rapidly
Armenia and Ukraine launched the improvement of trade and economic  relationsArmenia and Ukraine launched the improvement of trade and economic  relations
Official and real y-o-y inflation continues to accelerate in ArmeniaOfficial and real y-o-y inflation continues to accelerate in Armenia
Central Bank of Armenia once again raised the refinancing rate - from  7% to 7.25%Central Bank of Armenia once again raised the refinancing rate - from  7% to 7.25%
About 2 billion drams to be allocated for the installation of  photovoltaic stations in seven regions of ArmeniaAbout 2 billion drams to be allocated for the installation of  photovoltaic stations in seven regions of Armenia
"Veolia Djur" proposes to increase water tariff by 43.7 drams
Mher Grigoryan: Trade and economic relations between Armenia and  Ukraine have great potential for developmentMher Grigoryan: Trade and economic relations between Armenia and  Ukraine have great potential for development
"Become a shareholder": ACBA Bank issued its first 500.000 shares  with a total volume of 7.5 billion drams
IDBank as a sponsor of the charity concert IDBank as a sponsor of the charity concert "Armenian Rock for Children with Cancer"
As of September 10, 2021, tax collection exceeded indicators of  pre-crisis 2019 by 4.9% in ArmeniaAs of September 10, 2021, tax collection exceeded indicators of  pre-crisis 2019 by 4.9% in Armenia
The collector coin dedicated to the 30th anniversary of the Republic  of Armenia has been issued by Central BankThe collector coin dedicated to the 30th anniversary of the Republic  of Armenia has been issued by Central Bank
Minister of Finance of Armenia and Ambassador of India discussed  possible directions for development of cooperationMinister of Finance of Armenia and Ambassador of India discussed  possible directions for development of cooperation
 Construction of Construction of "Friendship Bridge" on Armenian-Georgian border is in  full swing
Armenia reduced exports of molybdenum, zinc and copper concentratesArmenia reduced exports of molybdenum, zinc and copper concentrates
Armenia increased export of all alcoholic beverages produced in  countryArmenia increased export of all alcoholic beverages produced in  country
Armenia significantly increased volume of exports and imports of  fruit and berry cropsArmenia significantly increased volume of exports and imports of  fruit and berry crops
Armenia in H1 2021 increased grape exports by 66.7% Armenia in H1 2021 increased grape exports by 66.7% 
Regular meeting of Armenian-German intergovernmental commission took  place in BerlinRegular meeting of Armenian-German intergovernmental commission took  place in Berlin
Exclusive opportunity for VISA Signature cardholders of Converse BankExclusive opportunity for VISA Signature cardholders of Converse Bank
Armenia significantly reduced sugar importsArmenia significantly reduced sugar imports
Imports of oil products to Armenia grew by 3.7% in the first half of  2021Imports of oil products to Armenia grew by 3.7% in the first half of  2021
Armenia continues to reduce imports and exports of passenger carsArmenia continues to reduce imports and exports of passenger cars
Expert: Institutional solutions are needed in the development of  public-private dialogue (PPD)Expert: Institutional solutions are needed in the development of  public-private dialogue (PPD)
Diamond exports from Armenia have increased several-foldDiamond exports from Armenia have increased several-fold
Online processes will replace paperwork and the need to visit customsOnline processes will replace paperwork and the need to visit customs
About 100 thousand residents of 5 regions of Armenia will receive  round-the-clock water supplyAbout 100 thousand residents of 5 regions of Armenia will receive  round-the-clock water supply
Public-private dialogue is not going well in ArmeniaPublic-private dialogue is not going well in Armenia
YOY inflation in Armenia reaches 8.8% in August 2021YOY inflation in Armenia reaches 8.8% in August 2021
Armenia cuts gold exports, increasing importsArmenia cuts gold exports, increasing imports
Exports grow faster than imports in Armenia`s foreign trade with the  EU countries- 41% versus 11%Exports grow faster than imports in Armenia`s foreign trade with the  EU countries- 41% versus 11%
Armenia`s foreign trade turnover with EAEU countries reaches  double-digit growthArmenia`s foreign trade turnover with EAEU countries reaches  double-digit growth
As of the end of August, 488 thousand tourists visited ArmeniaAs of the end of August, 488 thousand tourists visited Armenia
Armenia slightly reduced the export of aluminum foil in H1, 2021Armenia slightly reduced the export of aluminum foil in H1, 2021
Read more


Exchange rates
17.09.2021
RUB6.68-0.04
USD484.93-1.44
EUR571.39-1.07
GBP668.43-3.64
CAD383.25-1.51
JPY44.10-0.35
CNY75.15-0.46
CHF523.12-3.31