Tuesday, July 4 2017 17:28
Karine Melikyan

Fitch improved forecast for GDP growth in Armenia in 2017 from previous 2.1% to current 3.4% with acceleration to 3.6% in 2018

Fitch improved forecast for GDP growth in Armenia in 2017 from  previous 2.1% to current 3.4% with acceleration to 3.6% in 2018

ArmInfo. Fitch Ratings has improved  the forecast for GDP growth in Armenia in 2017 from the previously  expected 2.1% to the updated 3.4%, with the acceleration of the rate  in 2018 to 3.6%. This was announced on July 4 at the conference in  Yerevan by the director of the department of sovereign ratings of  Fitch Ratings Erik Eraisp.

According to him, the share of national debt in GDP under the updated  forecast will increase from 56.6% in 2016 to 57.6% in 2017, with the  continuation of growth in 2018 to 58.2%. After deflation of 1.3% in  2016, inflation will follow 1.6% in 2017, with further growth to 3%  in 2018. The current account deficit to GDP after 2.7% in 2016 will  begin to decline - to 2.2% in 2017 and 2.1% in 2018. The deficit of  the state budget in GDP will make up 3.3% in 2017, with a further  decrease in 2018 to 2.8%, against the actual 5.5% in 2016.

At the same event, the permanent presentation of the IMF in Armenia,  Teresa Daban Sanchez, in her speech noted that the GDP growth of  Armenia, according to the updated forecast is expected at 2.9%.

According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, Armenia's  GDP in 2016 was 5.068 trillion AMD ($ 10.5 billion), the GDP deflator  index in 2016 fell to 100.5% from 101.2% in 2015 per capita,  according to the results of 2016, 1.7 million AMD of GDP or more than  $ 3.5 thousand/3.2 thousand EUR, and from the national debt per  capita load reached $ 2 thousand by the end of 2016, and only $ 1.6  thousand from external debt. The population of Armenia, according to  statistical data, decreased in 2011-2016 from 3.274 million to 2.987  million. Experts believe that taking into account the high level of  migration, the population of Armenia is much lower than the  statistical data, which means that the per capita load on both the  GDP and the state debt is much higher than the statistical figures.  According to the IMF, Armenia ranked 115th position ($ 3511) in the  ranking of countries in terms of GDP per capita in 2016, published in  April 2017.

According to statistical data, in January-May 2017 economic activity  grew by 6.4% per annum, and the drivers are industry, services and  the trade sector. Foreign trade turnover in this period increased by  23.1%, in particular, exports by 20.9%, and imports - by 24.4%.  Armenia's national debt reached $ 6.1 billion by June 2017, of which  external debt was $ 4.9 billion and domestic debt $ 1.2 billion. In  the annual analysis, Armenia's national debt grew by 15.1%, including  external debt by 11.4%, and domestic debt - by 50%.

To note, the World Bank predicts GDP growth in Armenia in 2017 by  2.7% with the acceleration of the rate in 2018 to 3.1%, in 2019 up to  3.4%. According to the IMF forecast, Armenia's GDP growth in 2017  will be 2.9%, according to the EDB forecast - 2.9% and the Asian  Development Bank - 2.2%. The state budget of Armenia for 2017 laid  the GDP growth by 3.2%, but the government voiced a 5% growth.   According to the updated forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the  GDP growth of Armenia in 2017 will be 3.2-4.4%.

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     


News
Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov: “In September, we expect a systematic recovery of indices”Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov: “In September, we expect a systematic recovery of indices”
Konstantin Tserazov: “The Russian stock market has enough reasons for optimism”Konstantin Tserazov: “The Russian stock market has enough reasons for optimism”
FLYONE ARMENIA airline sets itself the task of transferring 1  million passengers in 2023FLYONE ARMENIA airline sets itself the task of transferring 1  million passengers in 2023
Armenian expert on risks of further domestic debt growth Armenian expert on risks of further domestic debt growth 
Team Telecom Armenia is undertaking its initial public offering (IPO) Team Telecom Armenia is undertaking its initial public offering (IPO) 
Groundbreaking ceremony of new Meghri checkpoint took place todayGroundbreaking ceremony of new Meghri checkpoint took place today
By end of 2023, Armenia to register 2nd largest economic growth and  lowest inflation rate among EAEU countries. But risks still remain -  EDBBy end of 2023, Armenia to register 2nd largest economic growth and  lowest inflation rate among EAEU countries. But risks still remain -  EDB
Vahan Kerobyan: Armenia may become an operator in Iranian port of  ChabaharVahan Kerobyan: Armenia may become an operator in Iranian port of  Chabahar
Tax collections overfulfilled by almost 20% - State Revenue Committee  of ArmeniaTax collections overfulfilled by almost 20% - State Revenue Committee  of Armenia
Money transfers actively flowing to Armenia from Russia are no less  actively flowing  to U.S.Money transfers actively flowing to Armenia from Russia are no less  actively flowing  to U.S.
Armenia`s economy minister meets with SME Cooperation Association  repsArmenia`s economy minister meets with SME Cooperation Association  reps
Converse Bank to present Converse Leasing product at Leasing Expo  2023 exhibition Converse Bank to present Converse Leasing product at Leasing Expo  2023 exhibition 
IDBank`s Visa Business Platinum card now with more profitable termsIDBank`s Visa Business Platinum card now with more profitable terms
Armenia, Georgia discuss joint investment projectsArmenia, Georgia discuss joint investment projects
Armswissbank issues 3 bonds from 1st of juneArmswissbank issues 3 bonds from 1st of june
Ministry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructures believes  that regular flights at Kapan airport to be launched this yearMinistry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructures believes  that regular flights at Kapan airport to be launched this year
FLYONE ARMENIA launches  Yerevan-Tehran-Yerevan direct flightsFLYONE ARMENIA launches  Yerevan-Tehran-Yerevan direct flights
Decline in sales volumes in duty-free stores forced government to  ease tight restrictions on cash transactionsDecline in sales volumes in duty-free stores forced government to  ease tight restrictions on cash transactions
Vahan Kerobyan: feasibility study of Dry Port project is being  carried out by Dutch company; results to be ready in a few monthsVahan Kerobyan: feasibility study of Dry Port project is being  carried out by Dutch company; results to be ready in a few months
PSRC: there are opportunities in Armenia for construction of solar  power plants with a total installed capacity of up to 1 thousand  megawatts, but...PSRC: there are opportunities in Armenia for construction of solar  power plants with a total installed capacity of up to 1 thousand  megawatts, but...
Minister: domestic and international tourism indicators equalized in  ArmeniaMinister: domestic and international tourism indicators equalized in  Armenia
Pashinyan: Since July 1, 2023, RA citizens` pensions to be increased  once againPashinyan: Since July 1, 2023, RA citizens` pensions to be increased  once again
Growth of budget revenues conditioned by three main factors: economic  growth indicators, shadow reduction, implemented reforms - PashinyanGrowth of budget revenues conditioned by three main factors: economic  growth indicators, shadow reduction, implemented reforms - Pashinyan
AraratBank underwrites FINCA UCO bondsAraratBank underwrites FINCA UCO bonds
Team NGN`s 25Gbps network is already available to 150,000 households  in ArmeniaTeam NGN`s 25Gbps network is already available to 150,000 households  in Armenia
Pashinyan: Armenia considers it important to form collective food  security system in EAEUPashinyan: Armenia considers it important to form collective food  security system in EAEU
Trade, services and construction continue to be main drivers of  double-digit growth in economic activity in ArmeniaTrade, services and construction continue to be main drivers of  double-digit growth in economic activity in Armenia
Armenian investment crowdfunding platform ARFI and ANIF to be  presented at Orion 2023 Summit in New YorkArmenian investment crowdfunding platform ARFI and ANIF to be  presented at Orion 2023 Summit in New York
Transavia Airlines to start Marseille-Yerevan-Marseille operating  flightsTransavia Airlines to start Marseille-Yerevan-Marseille operating  flights
Georgia refutes information about launch of shipment to NovorossiyskGeorgia refutes information about launch of shipment to Novorossiysk
Batumi-Novorossiysk ferry service put into operation Batumi-Novorossiysk ferry service put into operation 
Plant producing aluminum radiators to be put into operation in  ArmeniaPlant producing aluminum radiators to be put into operation in  Armenia
Vahan Kerobyan on Vahan Kerobyan on "impressive" indicators of FDI in Armenian economy
Yerevan brandy company could stop exports to RussiaYerevan brandy company could stop exports to Russia
Kaps reservoir construction project resumed in Armenia Kaps reservoir construction project resumed in Armenia 
CMTPL E-polices sales stalled pending more visible discounts as part  of tariff liberalization CMTPL E-polices sales stalled pending more visible discounts as part  of tariff liberalization 
ANIF to invest EUR 3.9mln in Universal Closures company ANIF to invest EUR 3.9mln in Universal Closures company 
Germany to assist Armenia in strengthening local government systemGermany to assist Armenia in strengthening local government system
Fix Price announces entry into Armenia`s marketFix Price announces entry into Armenia`s market
Presentation of ROBBO company held in Armenia Presentation of ROBBO company held in Armenia 
EBRD improves its GDP growth forecast for Armenia EBRD improves its GDP growth forecast for Armenia 
FLYONE ARMENIA started operating flights on the route Yerevan-Larnaca-YerevanFLYONE ARMENIA started operating flights on the route Yerevan-Larnaca-Yerevan
Armenian Diaspora of United States is ready to invest in  technological development of ArmeniaArmenian Diaspora of United States is ready to invest in  technological development of Armenia
CBA Forecast: Inflation in Armenia to reach target level of 4% from  H2 2023CBA Forecast: Inflation in Armenia to reach target level of 4% from  H2 2023
Foreigners` transactions on buying and selling property  reduced in  ArmeniaForeigners` transactions on buying and selling property  reduced in  Armenia
In Yerevan, real estate market activity is declining, but prices  continue to riseIn Yerevan, real estate market activity is declining, but prices  continue to rise
RA citizens` perception of EU has changed dramatically. Pashinyan The  reputation of the European Union has significantly improved after the  Union decided to send an observation mission to Armenia RA citizens` perception of EU has changed dramatically. Pashinyan The  reputation of the European Union has significantly improved after the  Union decided to send an observation mission to Armenia 
German investments for the sake of Armenia`s sustainable developmentGerman investments for the sake of Armenia`s sustainable development
Bright future for solar energy in Armenia - Expert on measures to  ensure sustainable development and true independence of  energy  sectorBright future for solar energy in Armenia - Expert on measures to  ensure sustainable development and true independence of  energy  sector
EDB discusses and implements number of energy projects in Armenia -  Head of BankEDB discusses and implements number of energy projects in Armenia -  Head of Bank
EDB is ready to support Amulsar mine development project - PodguzovEDB is ready to support Amulsar mine development project - Podguzov
Armenian-Czech business forum held in Prague Armenian-Czech business forum held in Prague 
Armenia`s Finance Ministry delegation participates in experience  exchange events  organized by ICAEWArmenia`s Finance Ministry delegation participates in experience  exchange events  organized by ICAEW
EAEU expects to significantly increase volume of trade in mid term by  signing of FTZ establishment agreement with IranEAEU expects to significantly increase volume of trade in mid term by  signing of FTZ establishment agreement with Iran
Union of Banks of Armenia presented awards to employees of ArmInfo  for their professional activities in covering financial and banking  sectorUnion of Banks of Armenia presented awards to employees of ArmInfo  for their professional activities in covering financial and banking  sector
CBA Deputy Governor singles out three key factors ensuring growth of  Armenia`s economy last yearCBA Deputy Governor singles out three key factors ensuring growth of  Armenia`s economy last year
Armenia`s state treasury revenues from leasing of state property  increased by 67.7% in 2022Armenia`s state treasury revenues from leasing of state property  increased by 67.7% in 2022
WB to issue 92.3mln Euro loan to Armenia for supporting country`s  budgetWB to issue 92.3mln Euro loan to Armenia for supporting country`s  budget
Iranian company to construct modern checkpoint in Armenia`s MeghriIranian company to construct modern checkpoint in Armenia`s Meghri
Environment Ministry, KfW sign agreement for implementation of EUR 26  million program Environment Ministry, KfW sign agreement for implementation of EUR 26  million program 
Read more


Exchange rates
06.06.2023
RUB4.770.01
USD387.04-0.24
EUR414.130.01
GBP480.550.83
CAD288.360.42
JPY27.760.15
CNY54.46-0.16
CHF426.581.46