Tuesday, July 4 2017 17:28
Karine Melikyan

Fitch improved forecast for GDP growth in Armenia in 2017 from previous 2.1% to current 3.4% with acceleration to 3.6% in 2018

Fitch improved forecast for GDP growth in Armenia in 2017 from  previous 2.1% to current 3.4% with acceleration to 3.6% in 2018

ArmInfo. Fitch Ratings has improved  the forecast for GDP growth in Armenia in 2017 from the previously  expected 2.1% to the updated 3.4%, with the acceleration of the rate  in 2018 to 3.6%. This was announced on July 4 at the conference in  Yerevan by the director of the department of sovereign ratings of  Fitch Ratings Erik Eraisp.

According to him, the share of national debt in GDP under the updated  forecast will increase from 56.6% in 2016 to 57.6% in 2017, with the  continuation of growth in 2018 to 58.2%. After deflation of 1.3% in  2016, inflation will follow 1.6% in 2017, with further growth to 3%  in 2018. The current account deficit to GDP after 2.7% in 2016 will  begin to decline - to 2.2% in 2017 and 2.1% in 2018. The deficit of  the state budget in GDP will make up 3.3% in 2017, with a further  decrease in 2018 to 2.8%, against the actual 5.5% in 2016.

At the same event, the permanent presentation of the IMF in Armenia,  Teresa Daban Sanchez, in her speech noted that the GDP growth of  Armenia, according to the updated forecast is expected at 2.9%.

According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, Armenia's  GDP in 2016 was 5.068 trillion AMD ($ 10.5 billion), the GDP deflator  index in 2016 fell to 100.5% from 101.2% in 2015 per capita,  according to the results of 2016, 1.7 million AMD of GDP or more than  $ 3.5 thousand/3.2 thousand EUR, and from the national debt per  capita load reached $ 2 thousand by the end of 2016, and only $ 1.6  thousand from external debt. The population of Armenia, according to  statistical data, decreased in 2011-2016 from 3.274 million to 2.987  million. Experts believe that taking into account the high level of  migration, the population of Armenia is much lower than the  statistical data, which means that the per capita load on both the  GDP and the state debt is much higher than the statistical figures.  According to the IMF, Armenia ranked 115th position ($ 3511) in the  ranking of countries in terms of GDP per capita in 2016, published in  April 2017.

According to statistical data, in January-May 2017 economic activity  grew by 6.4% per annum, and the drivers are industry, services and  the trade sector. Foreign trade turnover in this period increased by  23.1%, in particular, exports by 20.9%, and imports - by 24.4%.  Armenia's national debt reached $ 6.1 billion by June 2017, of which  external debt was $ 4.9 billion and domestic debt $ 1.2 billion. In  the annual analysis, Armenia's national debt grew by 15.1%, including  external debt by 11.4%, and domestic debt - by 50%.

To note, the World Bank predicts GDP growth in Armenia in 2017 by  2.7% with the acceleration of the rate in 2018 to 3.1%, in 2019 up to  3.4%. According to the IMF forecast, Armenia's GDP growth in 2017  will be 2.9%, according to the EDB forecast - 2.9% and the Asian  Development Bank - 2.2%. The state budget of Armenia for 2017 laid  the GDP growth by 3.2%, but the government voiced a 5% growth.   According to the updated forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the  GDP growth of Armenia in 2017 will be 3.2-4.4%.


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