Monday, August 28 2017 18:15
Karine Melikyan

The Central Bank revised the forecast for GDP growth for 2017 - 3.9-4.8% with a slowdown in 2018 to 2.8-4.2%

The Central Bank revised the forecast for GDP growth for 2017 - 3.9-4.8% with a slowdown in 2018 to 2.8-4.2%

ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia revised the forecast for GDP growth for 2017 from 3.3-4.8% to 3.9-4.8%. At the same time, the medium-term forecasts on the GDP growth of the Central Bank changed insignificantly: in 2018 - 2.8-4.2% against the previous 2.7- 4.5%, in 2019 - 3.2-4.8% against the previous 3.1- 5.2%, in the first half of the year 2020 - 3.7-5.4%. This is noted in the updated monetary and credit program of the Central Bank of Armenia, which explains that the drivers of economic growth will be the industrial sector and the services sector.

In the industrial sector, the Central Bank predicts an increase of 7.8-8.6% (against the previous 7.2-8.4%) in 2017, with stabilization in the range of 6-7% in 2018-2019. According to the agricultural sector, growth is projected to grow 1.6-2.4% in 2017 (against the previous 3.6-4.4%) with an acceleration to 4.4-5.2% in 2018-2019. In the service sector, growth is expected to be 4.2-4.6% in 2017 (against the previous 3.4-4%), which is due to a more significant flow of tourists than previously forecast, and in 2018-2019, the slowdown in growth in the sphere services to 3,1-3,7%. The construction sector in 2017 will be in decline - 1.5-2.4% (against previously projected downward 1.8-2.5%), with an output in 2018-2019 by 2-2.8% growth.

According to the updated forecast of the Central Bank, in the structure of domestic demand, private consumption in 2017 will grow by 4.8% (against the previous 4.3%) with a slowdown in 2018-2019 respectively to 2.4-2.8% and 2.9-3, 3%, and the growth rate of private investment, as under the previous forecast, will be 6%. For export and import in 2017, the Central Bank expects the same growth rates - 10- 12% (against the previously forecast growth in exports by 3-5% and imports by 4-6%). On money transfers of individuals of the Central Bank, taking into account lower than expected growth rates in the first half of this year. (net inflow increased by 11.1% per annum - Ed.), revised the forecast for growth in 2017 in the direction of slowdown - from the previous 14-16% to the current 12-14% and this threshold is due to the slow recovery of the Russian economy. The Central Bank's forecast on the unemployment rate in 2017 from the previously expected 17.7% was revised to 17.9%, with a subsequent decline annually by 0.3-0.5 percentage points.

To note, according to the IMF forecast, Armenia's GDP growth in 2017 will be 2.9%, according to the WB forecast - 2.7%, with the acceleration of the rate in 2018 to 3.1%, in 2019 - up to 3.4%. According to the forecast of the EDB in 2017, the GDP of Armenia is expected to grow by 2.9%, the Asian Development Bank - by 2.2%. Fitch improved the forecast for GDP growth in Armenia in 2017 from the previous 2.1% to the current 3.4% with an acceleration to 3.6% in 2018. The state budget of Armenia for 2017 laid the GDP growth by 3.2%, but the government voiced a 5% growth. According to the updated forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the GDP growth of Armenia in 2017 will be 3.9-4.8%. According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, Armenia's GDP growth slowed to 0.2% in 2016 from 3.2% in 2015.

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