ArmInfo. The lagging behind in carrying out serious structural transformations in the economy, including in the field of public administration, competition policy and improving the business environment, may become the main risks for Armenia. This is the opinion of the World Bank experts contained in the updated analytical review of the Armenian economy.
According to the experts of the World Bank, despite some recovery of the Russian economy and an increase in world commodity prices, the main risks for the Armenian economy and its sustainable recovery are contained in the absence or restriction of the implementation of serious structural reforms. If Armenia does not take advantage of this opportunity, supported by modest recovery trends, private investment and productivity growth will remain weak with negative consequences for employment, poverty reduction and maintaining an acceptable level of debt. Since employment opportunities do not appear in this case, the emigration of young and educated workers will continue, this will further worsen the level of labor productivity.
At the same time, the report notes that, nevertheless, the medium-term outlook for the Armenian economy was slightly improved last year due to the improved agenda for structural reforms, especially in terms of improving the business and investment climate. And, nevertheless, the main factor of improvement was a modest turn of the Russian economy, which increased the flow of private transfers to the country after seven years of a consecutive decline. At the same time, slow recovery is expected in such sectors as construction and agriculture. Higher copper prices should boost net exports. In the opinion of WB experts, one should expect that the financial situation in the country will noticeably improve and will be conditioned by the fact that GDP growth will reach at least 4% in 2019. However, the ratio of debt to GDP (59.6% in 2018) will not begin to decline until 2019. It is expected that consumer prices will continue to grow, in part because of higher food prices. Nevertheless, it is expected that inflation will remain below the Central Bank's target of 4%, at least until the end of 2019.