Monday, February 5 2018 15:41
Emmanuil Mkrtchyan

According to World Bank forecasts, the share of Armenia`s national debt in GDP will grow to 59.6% in 2018

According to World Bank forecasts, the share of Armenia`s national  debt in GDP will grow to 59.6% in 2018

ArmInfo. According to the World  Bank forecasts, the share of Armenia's national debt in GDP will grow  to 59.6% in 2018, from 58.9% in 2017, and the external debt to 48.4%  from 47.9% in 2017. In 2019, the World Bank predicts a decline in the  share of public debt in GDP to 59.3%, and external debt in GDP - up  to 48%. This forecast is given in the updated analytical report of  the World Bank on the economy of Armenia. The report notes that  Armenia's external debt in 2018 will be $ 5,184.6 million with growth  in 2019 to $ 5295.9 million.

The World Bank also forecasts that net foreign direct investment from  $ 475 million in 2017 will grow to $ 510 million in 2018, with  further growth to $ 545 million in 2019. Armenia's international  reserves from $ 2,060 million in 2017 will grow to $ 2,180 million in  2018.

In terms of exports, the WB forecasts an increase from $ 1,906.4  million in 2017 to $ 2013.8 million in 2018, with a further increase  to $ 2,222.9 million in 2019. In particular, exports of metals and  natural resources from $ 761.8 million in 2017 will grow to $ 807.2  million in 2018, finished food products - from $ 465.6 million in  2017 to $ 495.7 million in 2018, precious metals and stones - from $  373.7 million in 2017 to $ 395.3 million in 2018. On imports, the WB  forecasts growth from $ 3,516.9 million in 2017 to $ 3,747.2 million  in 2018 with a further increase to $ 3,942.1 million in 2019.

The current account deficit under the WB forecast from $ 415.2  million in 2017 will decrease to $ 410.7 million in 2018 with a  further decline to $ 397.9 million in 2019, resulting in its share in  GDP from 4% in 2017 will decrease to 3.8-3% in 2018-2019.

The growing national debt and continuing migration in Armenia have  already deepened the specific debt burden per capita to $ 2.3  thousand by January 1, 2018, of which over $ 1.8 thousand comes from  external debt, against $ 2 thousand and $ 1.6 thousand respectively,  by January 1, 2017. Taking into account the same real scale of  migration, the burden of public debt per capita would be much higher.  According to statistical data, as of January 1, 2018 the population  of the RA amounted to 2.973 million, compared to 2.986 million a year  earlier and 3.274 million five years earlier.

In 2017, the degree of coverage of foreign debt with gold and foreign  exchange reserves decreased from 45.9% to 39.6% amid a significant  increase in external debt and a fall in reserves. The share of  national debt in Armenia's GDP reached 56.6% by the end of 2016. And  judging by the expected GDP growth in Armenia in 2017 (the Central  Bank predicts 6.4%, and the government - 5.5-6%) against the  background of existing evidence on public debt, the share of the  latter in GDP may exceed 58%.

According to the World Bank's forecast updated in January 2018,  Armenia's GDP growth in 2018 will be 3.8% with an acceleration to 4%  in 2019, against the expected 3.7% in 2017. According to official  statistics, economic activity in Armenia increased by 7.7% per annum  in 2017, against the 0.5% growth for 2016. The volume of exports  increased in 2017 by 25.2% to 1082.1 billion AMD ($ 2242.9 million),  and imports - by 27.8% to 2018.3 billion AMD ($ 4,182.7 million). 

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