Thursday, March 15 2018 19:33

ArmInfo. In Armenia's external  debt ($ 5.5 billion as of January 1, 2018), the arrears for  multi-country credit programs dominate - 66.2% or $ 3.6 billion,  followed by debt on bilateral loan programs - 17.5% or $ 958.9  million and investments of non-residents in Armenian Eurobonds -  15,4% or $ 844.9 million. This is evidenced by the data of the  National Statistical Service of Armenia.

In the structure of Armenia's external debt, 32.9% or $ 1.808 billion  is concentrated on loans from the World Bank (WB: IDA - $ 1.132  billion and IBRD - $ 676.1 million), 12% or $ 659.3 million from the  Asian Development Bank (ADB), 7.4% or $ 404.2 million from the  International Monetary Fund (IMF), 4.3% or $ 237.03 million from the  European Investment Bank (EIB). For loans from the European Bank for  Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the debt is $ 23.6 million or  0.4% of Armenia's external debt, and from the International Fund for  Agricultural Development (IFAD) - $ 66.4 million or 1.2%. Among them,  the largest growth for the year 2017 was provided by EIB - by 50.8%,  after which the rate was followed by ADB - 28.8% and EBRD - by 15.3%.  The increase in other multilateral credit programs is much more  modest: IFAD - 4,5%, WB - 3,8%. IMF recorded a decline in investment  by 1.9%. The investments of non-residents in Armenian Eurobonds  declined by 6.6% in 2017, while their investments in Armenian dram  government bonds increased by 21%.

On bilateral credit programs, the largest amounts of debt appear in  KfW (Germany) and JICA (Japan) - respectively $ 295.9 million and $  238.5 million, or 5.4% and 4.3% of Armenia's external debt. The share  of loans from France in the foreign debt of Armenia is 2.2% or $  122.05 million, and from Russia 4.6% or $ 252.6 million. And it is  for loans from Russia and France that the largest growth was  registered 4.5 times in 2017 and 53.7%, respectively, with an  increase in loans from KfW by 47.7% and a decrease in loans from JICA  by 0.4%.

In the annual context (2017 to 2016), Armenia's external debt  increased by 14.3%, in the structure of which the debt under  multilateral credit programs increased by 12.5%, and by bilateral -  by 53.1%.

In 2017, loans were attracted for a total of $ 693.7 million, repaid  by $ 145.3 million, interest payments were made for $ 77.6 million.  The lion's share of loans was received in the IV quarter - $ 478.3  million. In the annual section (2017 to 2016), the volume of loans  increased by 12% repayments - by 18.4%, and interest payments, on the  contrary, decreased by 5.7 times. Only for the IV quarter of 2017 the  volume of attracted loans increased 4.5 times, repayments - 2 times,  and interest payments - by 58.7%.

The specific debt load per capita reached $ 2.3 thousand by January  1, 2018, of which over $ 1.8 thousand comes from external debt. The  growth of this indicator is due to the continuing ascent of the  general public debt, including external debt, at the same time the  population is decreasing. Thus, according to statistical data, as of  January 1, 2018, 2.973 million citizens live in Armenia, compared to  3.274 million for the same date in 2011 (when the specific debt load  per capita was $ 1.2 thousand, of which $ 1.1 thousand was from  external debt).

The degree of coverage of external debt with gold and foreign  exchange reserves decreased in 2017 from 45.9% to 42.1% against the  backdrop of a significant prevalence of foreign debt growth over the  growth of reserves - 14.6% against 4.5%. The share of national debt  in Armenia's GDP increased in 2017 to 58.9% from 56.6% in 2016.

According to the World Bank's forecast updated in January 2018, the  GDP growth of Armenia in 2018 will be 3.8% with the acceleration to  4% in 2019. According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia  updated in February 2018, GDP growth in 2018 will be 4.7-5.8%, in  2019 - 4.5-5.9%, in 2020 - 4.4-6%.  The state budget of the Republic  of Armenia for 2018 laid the GDP growth by 4.5%.