ArmInfo.The Central Bank of Armenia revised the forecast for the growth of remittances of individuals by 2018 to the side of the slowdown - from the previous 7-9% to the current 5-7%, causing it to collapse of the ruble against the backdrop of new US sanctions against Russia. About this it is noted in the program of monetary policy (DCC) of the Central Bank for the III quarter of 2018, published in late August
In the renewed range of the forecast for the growth of private transfers, the Central Bank included the results of the first and second quarters of 2018, in particular, exceeding the actual growth over the expected rates in the first quarter and corresponding to expectations recorded in the second quarter of growth. Thus, according to the Central Bank, in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the same period last year, the inflow of transfers of individuals increased by 14.5%, while the volume of remittances received from Russia increased by 22.1%, against an annual growth of 14.5% and 20.7% respectively in the first quarter of 2017. In the structure of the inflow, Russia's share in the I quarter of 2018 rose to 56% from 53% in the first quarter of 2017. In the second quarter of 2018, the inflow of private transfers grew by only 4.2% per annum, while the volume of remittances received from Russia increased by 6.6%, against an annual growth of 17.9% and 12.2%, respectively, in the second quarter of 2017. In the structure of the inflow, Russia's share in the II quarter of 2018 increased from 56% to 60.4%, against growth in the second quarter of 2017 from 53% to 59.1%.
According to the latest data of the Central Bank for January-July 2018, the inflow of remittances of individuals amounted to $ 967 million, and the outflow exceeded $ 634 million. The annual growth (January-July 2018 to January-July 2017) of the total inflow of remittances of individuals amounted to 7.5% with growth of outflow by 25,1%. As a result, the net inflow of private transfers declined by 15.3% year-on-year. The share of Russia in the inflow amounted to 59.3% or $ 573 million, while in the outflow it was 37.3% or $ 236.6 million. Moreover, the inflow of private transfers from Russia grew by 9.5% annually, with the growth of the outflow of remittances to Russia 14%, resulting in a net inflow from Russia increased by 6.6%.
According to Central Bank statistics, in 2017, the inflow of natural persons' transfers to Armenia increased by 14.6% (against the projected 14-16%) to $ 1.757 billion. In this case, the outflow of transfers grew by 25.6% to $ 1.026 billion in 2017. As a result, net the inflow of transfers in 2017 increased by 2.1%, to $ 731 million. In the tributary, Russia's share is 60.6% or $ 1.065 billion, while in the outflow - 34.5% or $ 354 million. The inflow of transfers from Russia grew in 2017 at 18, 7% with an outflow growth of 6.1%, which increased net inflow from Russia by 26.2%.