ArmInfo. Doctor of Economics, Professor Tatul Manaseryan believes that Armenia has every chance to complete the 2019th year with double-digit GDP. In particular, the expert stated that according to statistical data, economic activity in the first half of 2018 has already increased to 8.9% per annum. "I am glad that one of the main indicators of the country's economic development, in contrast to previous years, is the growth in the construction industry, the total amount of deposits of individuals in Armenian banks has also grown. Meanwhile negative indicators in the field of agriculture indicate to lack of appropriate agrarian policy in the country. Thus, we can state with conviction that the recent domestic political events in the country have strengthened the confidence of the population and the diaspora in the state's economic policy, "he said.
In this context, according to Manaseryan, if there are a number of conditions, namely, holding early parliamentary elections and forming a stable political and economic environment, the corresponding team of professionals in the government will manage to complete the 2018th year with a 7% GDP growth. Thus, not only the figure budgeted at 4.5% will be exceeded, but also the forecasts of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Armenia in the range of 5.6-6.9%.
In addition, according to the economist, the GDP growth rate at 4.9%, fixed in the draft budget for the next year, is a manifestation of the traditionally conservative approach of the Ministry of Finance, which was formed on the basis of current realities. "While in case the emerging trends maintain, I believe that there are serious reasons to believe that Armenia will sum up the year 2019 with GDP growth of 10% or more," Tatul Manaseryan concluded.
To recall, economic growth in Armenia in 2016 was 0.2%. However, at the end of 2017, the country recorded a 7.5% GDP growth, and the budget for the 2018 forecasted the figure of 4.5%. Recently, the Armenian Central Bank revised its growth expectations to 5.6-6.9%, while the Ministry of Finance announced a figure of 6.5%. Nevertheless, by the end of 2019, the Armenian government expects GDP growth at the level of 4.9%. As Minister of Finance Atom Janjughazyan announced on September 27, presenting the draft budget-2019 in the government, calculations were made on the basis of the program of medium-term expenditures for 2019-2021 with some correction due to internal and external developments. "Initially, according to the medium-term expenditure program, Armenia's GDP growth for the next year was projected at 5.3%, however, as a result of the growth adjustments for the current year from 4.5% to 6.5%, and based on changes in the database, the forecast was revised next year to 4.9%>, - he pointed out.
To note, recently the Central Bank of Armenia raised the range of the forecast for GDP growth for 2018 from the previous 4.6-6.5% to the current 5.6-6.9%, more modestly revising the expected growth threshold for 2019 in the direction of acceleration - 4, 6-6,4% and for 2020 - 4,1-6,2%, against previously predicted 4,1-6,2% and 3,9-6,1% respectively. Moreover, the increase in medium-term forecasts for GDP growth, the Central Bank explains with the high investment activity expected in the current year. This is set out in the Central Bank's monetary policy program for the third quarter of 2018, published at the end of August. According to the World Bank's forecast for 2018 updated in June 2018, Armenia's GDP growth will be 4.1%, with a slowdown to 4% in 2019-2020.
Meanwhile, according to statistics, economic activity in the first half of 2018 increased by 8.9% per annum against the background of growth in foreign trade turnover by 28.9%, in particular, exports - by 20% and imports - by 33.9%. The growth drivers were the service sector and the construction sector - 18.1% and 13.5%, respectively, while the rest of the industry showed a more modest ascent: the trade sector - by 9.1%, the agricultural sector - 5.5%, the industrial sector - by 3.7% and the energy complex - 1.5%. Bank deposits (call and time deposits), according to the latest Financial Rating of Armenian Banks, prepared by ArmInfo Information Company, increased by 199.8 billion drams in y-o-y terms, and only in the first half of the year - by 54 billion drams.