ArmInfo. Starting a new fiscal year with old budget proportions means creating some uncertainty for economic entities, which will negatively affect the future economic growth of the country. In an interview with ArmInfo correspondent, such opinion was expressed by ex- Minister of Finance of Armenia Vardan Aramyan, commenting on the potential risks to the country's economy if the state budget is not approved before the start of the budget year.
As Aramyan pointed out, the legislator has envisaged cases when a country starts a new fiscal year without a basic financial and economic law. And, nevertheless, the availability of this document for the development of the country's economy has an important role, since the approved state budget provides a comfort zone and is a definite guide for both business - local economic entities and investors, and for the ordinary citizen.
"The new fiscal year with the old budget is not conducive to the implementation of new programs - the business takes a wait-and-see attitude to understand what tax expectations the government has, which should be ensured by both economic growth and tax administration. And what if it suddenly comes to power a political force that decides to increase tax revenues of the budget not by 150 billion drams, as recorded in the draft budget for the 2019th year, but for all - 500? ", Aramyan asked. In addition, budgeting is necessary when the country hopes for foreign investment. After all, it is important for investors to have reliable information about the main trends in the development of the country's economy and fiscal policy. And it can be learned only from the detailed budget items.
Meanwhile, on September 27, the Armenian government approved the draft law "On the State Budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2019". October 1, the document was submitted to Parliament. Discussions on the draft budget for 2019 were supposed to start from October 29: they will be about 15 days in parliamentary commissions, and already on November 14 it was planned to discuss it at the session of the National Assembly. But it became known that the discussions were postponed until November 1, and taking into account the fact that the head of government resigned on October 16, and the parliament would be dissolved in two weeks, that is, the likelihood that the draft budget would not be adopted for a number of reasons. including the absence of a quorum.
On October 17, referring to this perspective, the. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that he sees no problems if the country's parliament does not have time to adopt the country's budget for the 2019th year.
It should be noted that according to the RA Law on the Budget System of the Republic of Armenia, in the event that the state budget is not approved before the start of the budget year, expenses are made in the proportions of the budget of the previous year. In the Republic of Armenia, the budget year begins on January 1 of each year and ends on December 31 of the same year. That is, if the budget of 2019, based on the political situation, is not adopted, the government will still finance it in accordance with the proportions of the budget of 2018. Meanwhile, the government next year announced changes to the RA Law on State Pensions, which, from January 1, 2019, proposes to set the minimum pension at the level of extreme poverty - at a rate of 25,500 drams (against the early 16 thousand drams). The increase in the minimum pension will cost the state budget an additional 6.8 billion drams. On September 14, the Armenian government also approved a legislative initiative of the Ministry of Labor and on social issues on a triple increase in the lump-sum allowance for the birth of the second child, which in 2019 would require an additional 1.5 billion drams. Today it is already known that the Cabinet will not have time to implement its plans for tax reforms. Thus, the next year, at least fiscal, at this stage seems very vague.