ArmInfo. The World Bank predicts that by 2019, Armenia's GDP will grow by 4.3% with an acceleration in 2020 to 4.6% and maintaining these rates in 2021. This is noted in the January report of the WB Global Economic Prospects (GEP).
According to the growth of GDP of the EAEU countries, the World Bank forecasts are as follows: Russia - in 2019 GDP growth by 1.5% with an acceleration in 2020 to 1.8%; Belarus - in 2019 GDP growth by 2.7% with a slowdown in 2020 to 2.5%; Kazakhstan - in 2019 GDP growth by 3.5% with a slowdown in 2020 to 3.2%; Kyrgyzstan - in 2019 GDP growth by 3.4% with an acceleration in 2020 to 3.9%.
In the neighboring countries of Armenia, the WB forecats: Georgia - in 2019, it will ensure GDP growth by 5% while maintaining these rates in 2020; Azerbaijan - by 3.6% with a slowdown in 2020 to 3.3%.
In total for the countries of Europe and Central Asia (ECA), the World Bank forecasts GDP growth by 2.3% in 2019 (versus 3.1% in 2018), with an acceleration in 2020 to 2.7% and in 2021 to 2.9% .
The January report of the World Bank states: "Slowing down or changing the current course of structural reforms remains a risk in many countries of the region, especially in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Ukraine and Turkey. Tensions in Syria or Ukraine can cause new sanctions. Policy differences between the EU and some Central Europe can hold back international investors and reduce fiscal transfers. Escalating trade restrictions between the US and the Euro area, can adversely affect western ECA countries, as the Euro area, is the largest trading partner for all countries in the subregion. "
In terms of global economic growth, the World Bank worsened the forecast to 2.9% in 2019 (from 3% cited for 2018), causing it as a background of increasing risks and adverse factors. In 2020, GDP growth is expected to slow down to 2.8% with the same rates and in 2021, which is associated with a decline in trade and investment. In particular, in the USA GDP is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2019 (against 2.9% in 2018) with a slowdown in 2020 to 1.7% and in 2021 to 1.6%, in the Euro area - GDP growth in 2019 by 1.6% (against 1.9% in 2018) with a slowdown in 2020 to 1.5% and in 2021 to 1.3%, in Japan - GDP growth in 2019 by 0.9% (against 0.8% in 2018) with a slowdown in 2020 to 0.7% and in 2021 to 0.6%, in the UK - GDP growth in 2019 by 1.4% (against 1.3% in 2018) with acceleration rates in 2020 to 1.7% and in 2021 to 1.8%.
To note, the World Bank has already improved the forecast on GDP growth in Armenia for 2018 and 2019 in the October report "Macroeconomic Development of Armenia": in 2018 - an increase of 5.3% (against the previous 4.1%), in 2019 - an increase of 4,3% (against the previous 4%), and by 2020 - an increase of 4.6%. Moreover, WB designated the industrial sector as drivers of economic growth for Armenia in 2019 - 6.1%. For the services sector and the agricultural sector, a modest growth is expected - 3.9% and 2.9%, respectively. For 2019, the WB predicts export growth by 8% in Armenia's foreign trade, while import growth is 11.8% (against the previously forecast 9.8% and 9.5%, respectively), and for 2020 - export growth by 7.9%, while import growth of 9.2%.
To recall, the Central Bank of Armenia in November 2018 adjusted the range of the forecast for GDP growth: for 2018 - from the previous 5.6-6.9% to the current 4.6-5.1%. At the same time, the regulator revised the expected growth threshold in the medium term in the direction of slowdown: 4.4% -5.5% for 2019 and 3.9% -5.4% for 2020 (versus 4.6-6.4% previously forecast and 4.1-6.2%, respectively). In the state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2018, GDP growth of 4.5% is laid, and in the state budget for 2019 - by 4.9%.