Thursday, March 21 2019 14:08

ArmInfo. The poorest group of the population of Armenia in terms of their poverty level, calculated on the basis of purchasing power parity (PPP) at a cost of $ 1.9 per  day, in 2019 will decrease to 1.0% of the population, against 1.3% in  2018. According to the forecast, in 2020, such people in the country  will be only 0.8% of the total population.

The conditional middle stratum of the population, namely those who  spend $ 3.2 per day on existence, based on PPP, in 2019 may reach  9.1%, and already in 2020 - 8.1% of the population. According to the  data of the past 2018, there were 10.1% of such poor in Armenia.

Such forecast indicators are contained in the updated World Bank  report entitled "Armenia. A strong mandate for change amid a global  slowdown. Winter 2019", published yesterday.

Meanwhile, the report does not mention what forecast should be  expected in terms of poverty among the widest stratum of poor people  in the country who are able to spend no more than $ 5.5 a day on  themselves.  However, earlier, in October 2018, the World Bank  expected that there will be 35.9% of such  relatively   poor in Armenia in the current 2019 out of the entire population of  the country, and in 2020 - 34.9%, compared to the forecast of 38.0 %  for 2018.

To note for comparison that according to the previous forecast, the  WB envisaged somewhat lower rates of poverty per PPP:  spending $ 1.9  per day - 0.9% of the population in 2019 and 0.7% of residents in  2020.  For those spending $ 3.2, a decrease in the poverty level was  expected in 2019-2020  from 8.6% to 7.6%.  Thus, the WB demonstrated  a more "restrained optimism" related to the rates of poverty  reduction among the most vulnerable segments of the country's  population.

WB specialists note: "Although improved economic performance and  dynamism in the labor market have helped to reduce the poverty rate,  poverty continues to affect a substantial proportion of the  population. In 2017 (the last year for which poverty data are  available), 12.3 percent of the population lived below the  lower-middle-income economy poverty line of US$3.2/day and 50 percent  lived below the uppermiddle- income economy poverty line of  US$5.5/day. Even though economies such as Ukraine and Moldova have a  lower GDP per capita, their poverty rates are significantly below  Armenia's.The poverty rate (measured using the national poverty line)  declined by 3.7 percentage points in 2017, falling to 25.7 percent  from 29.4 percent in 2016. This reduction was mostly due to  developments in urban areas other than Yerevan, the capital. Urban  and rural poverty rates in 2017 were 25 and 26.8 percent,  respectively, down from 28.8 and 30.4 percent a year earlier. Among  urban areas, the poverty rate was the lowest in Yerevan (at 22.4  percent in 2017). The extreme poverty rate (measured using the food  line, approximately $50 per month) was estimated at 1.4 percent in  2017, only slightly below the 1.6 percent rate registered in 2008. In  2017, economic growth translated into higher consumption levels for  those at the bottom 40 percent of the distribution, in contrast to  2011-16 when growth mostly benefited the upper deciles (the most  well-to-do sector of society of Armenia-ed. note).