ArmInfo. The social and political risks noted by the World Bank (WB) in connection with the possible failure of the economic reforms implemented by the Armenian government are zero. The Minister of Economic Development and Investments of Armenia Tigran Khachatryan told ArmInfo correspondent about this.It should be noted that in the WB's new forecast, published on March 20, "Armenia.
A powerful mandate for change in the context of a slowdown in global economic growth. Winter 2019," WB experts warn: <if the government fails to achieve significant success, political and social voltage>.According to Tigran Khachatryan, he does not see such risks, since the Armenian government takes consistent steps aimed at the growth of the Armenian economy.These warnings, as well as the fact that the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressed more restraint regarding the expected economic growth of Armenia in 2019, according to the minister, are traditionally more cautious and conservative in their forecasts than governments themselves. This, as the head of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade pointed out, is due to the fact that these authoritative international organizations have a certain institutional system of assessment methodology, which is based on averages of past times. "For them, assessing the impact of structural changes in the economy is usually more difficult than for the Cabinet. Accordingly, forecasts vary in a number of cases. And yes, we are more optimistic than they are," said Tigran Khachatryan.
Recall that the growth of the Armenian economy in 2019, according to the forecast of the World Bank, will make 4.3%, the IMF expects by 0.2 percentage points higher - 4.5%. Meanwhile, the Armenian government is counting on a higher total figure of 4.9%. A five-year government program claims GDP growth of at least 5% per year.Meanwhile, the World Bank, in its report on the state of the Armenian economy, notes that GDP growth will slow down, but will maintain steady rates. The economy can be adversely affected by processes in the region and a slowdown in global economic growth. In particular, the volume of exports of goods and services will decrease. The report also says that economic reforms in Armenia will require persistent efforts, since otherwise it will be impossible to achieve significant results, create jobs, increase salaries, solve social problems and attract investments to the country.World Bank experts state: <despite the fact that social indicators have improved, there are still many people in the country who live in poverty. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell, reaching 15.7 percent in 2018. This is the best figure for the last 10 years>. Poverty reduction is expected to a minimum.The IMF is more conservative in its expectations and predicts lower economic growth this year amid a reduction in remittances from abroad, which, however, according to experts of the fund, can be offset by increased investment. According to IMF estimates, the projected decline in growth rates in Armenia is mainly due to external risks, including "increased tensions in world trade, turbulence in global financial markets and increased regional geopolitical tensions."