ArmInfo. The IMF improved the forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2019 from the previous 4.5% to the current 4.6%, expecting a slowdown in 2020 to 4.5%. This is stated in the IMF April report "World Economic Outlook: Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery".
As for the current account deficit of Armenia, the IMF expects 4.6% of GDP in 2019 and 4.3% of GDP in 2020.
Inflation in Armenia, according to the new IMF forecast, will make 2.1% in 2019, and 3% in 2020.
The IMF expects a decrease in unemployment in Armenia from 17.9% in 2019 and 17.7% in 2020.
The IMF report also provides forecasts for countries neighboring Armenia. Thus, in Georgia, GDP growth in 2019 will be 4.6% with acceleration in 2020 to 5%, the current account deficit will decrease in 2019- 2020 from 8% to 7.8% of GDP, inflation will increase from 2.5% in 2019 to up 3% in 2020. In Azerbaijan, GDP growth in 2019 will be 3.4% with a slowdown in 2020 to 3.1%, the current account surplus will increase in 2019-2020 from 11.7% to 13.3%, inflation will be 2.5% in 2019 and stay at this level in 2020, the unemployment rate will be 5% in 2019 and this threshold will remain in 2020.
In Russia, the IMF expects GDP growth in 2019 by 1.6% with acceleration in 2020 to 1.7%, the current account surplus will decrease in 2019-2020 from 5.7% to 5.1% of GDP, inflation will decrease from 5 % in 2019 to 4.5% in 2020, the unemployment rate will decrease in 2019-2020 from 4.8% to 4.7%.
In general for the CIS countries, the IMF forecasts GDP growth in 2019 by 2.2% with acceleration in 2020 to 2.3%, a decrease in the current account surplus in 2019-2020 from 3.8% to 3.4% of GDP, a decrease of inflation from 5.7% in 2019 to 5% in 2020. Moreover, in countries-exporters of energy (including Russia), GDP is expected to grow in 2019 by 2.1% with an acceleration in 2020 to 2.2%, a decrease in the current account surplus in 2019-2020 from 4.9% to 4.4% GDP, decrease of inflation from 5.7% in 2019 to 5% in 2020. And in the countries importing energy (including Armenia), GDP is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2019, with acceleration in 2020 to 3.1%, a decrease in the current account deficit in 2019-2020 from 4% to 3.4% of GDP, a decrease in inflation from 6.2% in 2019 to 5.3% in 2020. Among the CIS countries, the IMF expects the highest GDP growth in 2019 in Turkmenistan - 6.3%, and the highest inflation in 2019 will be recorded in Uzbekistan - 16.5% and slightly lower in Turkmenistan - 13%. Only Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan will record a current account surplus by the end of 2019, and Kyrgyzstan will have the largest current account deficit - 10.9%.
It should be noted that, according to the World Bank's forecast in March 2019, Armenia's GDP growth in 2019-2020 will accelerate from 4.3% to 4.6%, and the current account deficit will decline from 8.6% to 8% of GDP. According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia for 2019, GDP growth will be in the range of 4.6-6.1%. In the state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2019, GDP growth is set at 4.9%.
According to the RA Statistical Committee, GDP growth in Armenia slowed down in 2018 to 5.2% from 7.5% in 2017, reaching 6.003 trillion drams ($ 12.4 billion). The GDP deflator index in 2018 was 102.5%, against 102.2% in 2017. The service sector, the commercial sector and the industrial sector retain their dominant significance in terms of GDP, but in terms of y-o-y growth only the service sector remained in the drivers.