Friday, May 17 2019 19:16

ArmInfo.The United States today is conducting quite active training in the direction of increasing confrontation with Iran. Coupled with the projection of tension  existing in the Washington-Tehran relations to other regions, this is  quite capable of affecting the political situation around Iran. To a  large extent, such tensions complicate the situation in our region.  ArmInfo expressed a similar opinion to Ilgar Velizade, head of the  South Caucasus (Baku) political scientists club.

US President Donald Trump called on Tehran to begin negotiations on  Iran's complete abandonment of its nuclear program. Given the  heightened tension between the two countries, Trump also did not rule  out a military scenario of resolving the conflict. Between the US and  Iran are increasingly traced elements of political tension. In  particular, the United States sent aircraft carriers to the Persian  Gulf, in response to Iran once again threatened to block the Strait  of Hormuz.

"This is a destabilization of a large enough region - on the Caspian  Sea, Iran borders with Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan and  Turkmenistan. Accordingly, regional countries that are not interested  in such a scenario are making efforts to reduce the  military-political and economic risks that this situation is fraught  with. So, in the face of US pressure on Iran, Russia, Iran and  Azerbaijan agreed to discuss the prospects for the development of the  North-South project in Moscow in August. This project is also of  interest to India, to some South States Asia and Northern Europe ", -  he stressed.

Nevertheless, given the desire of the European Union countries,  Russia and China to keep the nuclear deal with Iran, the hope that  the situation around the Iranian nuclear program will move to a  constructive direction, according to Velizade, is still there. At the  same time, according to his forecasts, the full-scale implementation  of US sanctions against Iran in any case can lead to a restructuring  of the energy market, primarily as a result of the reorientation of  the countries-importers of Iranian oil to other sources.  According  to Velizade, China accounts for 35%, India 33%, The European Union is  20%, 7% for Turkey and 5% for Iranian oil exports to Japan.

However, given the rejection of imports of Iranian oil, the main  partners The USA of Japan, South Korea and some EU countries, Iran  loses about 30% its oil exports.

"Iran, of course, will take active steps to prevent the loss of its  position in the international energy markets.  In particular, Tehran  has already announced its intention to use the possibilities of the  gray market.  However, there is no" gray market "as such, there is  only a black, shadow oil market. And, quite naturally, Iran is likely  to start selling oil at dumping prices, which may destabilize the oil  market and significantly affect pricing, "the political scientist  concluded.