ArmInfo.The net inflow of individuals' transfers to Armenia in January-April 2019 unfolded the vector of YOY dynamics towards a 19.1% increase from a 23.6% decline in January-April 2018, forming at the level of $ 138.9 million. According to the Central Bank of Armenia, it was the result of a slight slowdown in the growth of transfers of individuals to Armenia in January-April 2019 to 10.8% per annum from 14.6% in January-April 2018, with a significant slowdown in the growth of transfers outflow - from 36.1% to 8.1%, the volume of which amounted to $ 535.8 million and $ 396.9 million, respectively.
The inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia in January-April 2019 slowed growth to 0.6% per annum from 18.1% in the same period of 2018. At the same time, the outflow of money in the Russian Federation almost kept the YOY rates of the uptrend - 16.6% against 17.6% in the same period of 2018. This worsened the dynamics of net inflow of transfers from Russia from 18.5% YOY growth in January-April 2018 to 14.5% YOY decline in January-April 2019. The volume of transfers from Russia amounted in January- April 2019 to $ 272.7 million, and the outflow to the Russian Federation - $ 153.7 million, which formed a net inflow in this direction at the level of $ 119.02 million. The opposite picture is observed according to the trend of transfers in the direction of the USA. In particular, the YOY growth in inflows from the US accelerated sharply from 11.7% in January-April 2018 to 35.9% in January-April 2019, with a significant slowdown in the outflow growth in the United States from 24.7% to 15.5%. As a result, the volume of inflows from the United States again began to prevail over the outflow (inflow = $ 81.8 million, outflow = $ 74.6 million), while in 2018 outflow dominated. As a result, the YOY dynamics of the net inflow of individuals' transfers from the USA to Armenia emerged from a significant decline (4 fold) by no less significant growth - by 3.7 fold - by plus $ 7.2 million versus negative $ 4.4 million a year earlier.
According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia for 2019, a net inflow of private transfers is expected to grow in the range of 5-7%, in line with the predicted development of the Russian economy, from where the dominant volume of remittances flows to Armenia. According to GDP growth, the Central Bank of Armenia forecasts a range of 4.6-6.1% in 2019. To recall, in 2018 the flow of transfers of individuals to Armenia slowed down growth to 1.7% from 14.6% in 2017, making $ 1.786 billion. At the same time, the growth rate of outflow of transfers slowed slightly from 21.2% in 2017 to 20.1 % in 2018, reaching $ 1.188 billion. This worsened the dynamics of net inflow of transfers from 7.1% growth in 2017 to 22.1% decline in 2018, forming at the level of $ 597.2 million. In the inflow, Russia's share decreased from 2018 60.6% to 58.8%, and in the outflow, on the contrary, increased from 38% to 39.7%.