ArmInfo.When considering the pricing of Russian gas for Armenia in the economic context, price increases are inevitable, expert on energy security Vahe Davtyan expressed his opinion to ArmInfo.
From January 1, 2019, the cost of Russian gas for Armenia increased from $ 150 to $ 165 per thousand cubic meters. However, domestic tariffs for consumers were not increased due to the reduction of the margin of the Armenian subsidiary of Gazprom CJSC Gazprom-Armenia.
"Negotiations between Yerevan and Moscow have been going on for half a year already, and by September they are expected to announce their results. However, considering the economic methodology in this issue, a 10% increase in gas prices by the beginning of the next year can be forecasted. My forecast is based on the trends of rise in the cost of blue fuel in the recent two years on the world energy market. In 2018 alone the cost of gas exported from Russia increased by 23% to $ 240, "the expert stated. At the same time, Davtyan reminded that Armenia continues to buy Russian gas at the border at a price lower than the market due to political factors. In this light, he does not exclude both preservation of the existing and lowering the cost of Russian gas for Armenia. However, in the case of considering the pricing of Russian gas for Armenia from a purely economic perspective, a rise in prices, according to his estimates, is inevitable.
Commenting on the proposals of Armenia and Belarus on the completion of the formation of a unified energy market of the EAEU that started as early as in 2016, the expert assessed this initiative as fully realizable. At the same time, Davtyan sees flaws in this integration model. In particular, the expert believes that in view of the production of the main volume of electricity in Armenia and Belarus by TPPs running on imported gas, Armenian and Belarusian electricity on the common energy market of the EAEU with the participation of Russia and Kazakhstan will simply be uncompetitive.
Davtyan assesses the opinion that the formation of a common energy market of the EAEU will make it possible to provide common gas prices for all member countries as a myth. According to his estimates, taking into account, for example, the problem of Armenia's isolation from other EAEU countries and, as a consequence, the need to include the cost of transit in the price, there is simply no such issue on the EAEU agenda.