Tuesday, July 9 2019 19:38

ArmInfo. The national debt of Armenia grew by only 0.2% in the first half of 2019, not moving from the level of $ 6.9 billion (3.3 trillion drams). According to the  Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Armenia, in its structure,  external debt decreased by 1.4% in the first half of the year to $  5.5 billion (2.6 trillion drams), and domestic, by contrast, grew by  6.3% to $ 1.5 billion (705.1 billion drams).

In particular, during the reporting period, the government's external  debt decreased by 1% to $ 4.9 billion, while the Central Bank's  foreign debt dropped by 4.5% to $ 525 million. Moreover, in the  external debt of the Central Bank of Armenia, the share of government  guarantees loans was 26% or $ 136.5 million, with a six-month decline  of 4.2%.

From external sources, the government attracted loans as of July 1,  2019 in the amount of $ 4.1 billion (with a six-month decline of  0.7%). In particular, the volume of loans attracted from  international organizations amounted to $ 3.2 billion at the  reporting date (half-year decline by 0.8%), from foreign countries -  $ 931.5 million (half-year decline by 0.01%), from commercial banks -  $ 21.7 million (half-year decline by 4.4%).

In the structure of the government's internal debt, the share of  government bonds was 86% or $ 1.3 billion (with a six-month growth of  5.2%), Armenian Eurobonds - 13.4% or $ 197.4 million (with a  six-month growth of 14.3%), and the remaining 0.6 % or $ 9 million  accounted for by internal guarantees (no change).  As of July 1,  2019, government bonds were in circulation at 610.1 billion drams (a  six-month increase of 3.7%). Of these, 59.4% are long-term (GDO),  35.2% are medium-term (GSO), 4.4% are short-term (GKO) and 1% are  savings. The weighted average yield on government bonds placed in the  primary market in January-June 2019 was 9.05%.

The share breakdown of government debt (external and internal  together) by borrowing instruments as of July 1, 2019 is as follows:  64.2% are loans, 19.9% are dram government bonds, 15.6% are Armenian  Eurobonds and 0.3% - guarantees. At the beginning of the year, the  share of loans and Armenian Eurobonds was more - 65% and 15.7%,  respectively, of dram government bonds, on the contrary, was less -  19%, and the proportion of guarantees was the same - 0.3%. In the  structure of government debt, the share of foreign debt fell in the  reporting six months from 78.2% to 76.9%, and internal, on the  contrary, increased from 21.8% to 23.1%.

80% of the government's debt is in foreign currency, and 20% in  drams, against 80.9% and 19.1%, respectively, at the beginning of the  year. 84.8% of government debt is raised at a fixed interest rate,  and 15.2% at a floating interest rate, which is slightly different  from the figures for the beginning of the year - 85% and 15%  respectively.

According to the forecast of the World Bank, the ratio of the state  debt of Armenia to GDP in 2019 will rise to 56.3% from the actual  55.8% in 2018, from a meager decline in 2020 to 56%. WB Government  Debt expects the ratio to GDP at 51.1% in 2019 with a decrease in  2020 to 50.5%, against 51.4% actually recorded in 2018. On external  debt, the World Bank forecasts the ratio to GDP at 43.6% in 2019,  with a decline in 2020 to 42.5%, against 44.6% actually recorded in  2018. In absolute terms, the external debt of Armenia, according to  the forecasts of the World Bank, will amount to $ 5.671 billion in  2019, with growth in 2020 to $ 5.905 billion, against actual in 2018  $ 5.533 billion.

According to the RA Statistical Committee, the state debt of Armenia  increased by 2.2% over 2018 (against a growth of 15.3% in 2017),  making $ 6.923 billion (3.349 trillion drams). In particular,  external debt increased by 0.7% in 2018 (against a growth of 14.6% in  2017), reaching $ 5.533 billion (2.677 trillion drams), and domestic  debt - by 8.6% (against a growth of 18, 2% in 2017), making $ 1.390  billion (672.4 billion drams).  The slowdown in the growth of public  debt while reducing the rate of migration kept the specific debt  burden per capita at the level of $ 2.3 thousand. Of these, $ 1.9  thousand, as in the previous year, comes from external debt. For  2018, the population of the RA decreased slightly - from 2.973  million to 2.965 million. -v- The degree of coverage of foreign debt  with foreign exchange reserves fell in 2018 from 42.1% to 40.6%, amid  a sharp slowdown in the growth of external debt and a reversal of the  dynamics of reserves from 5% growth to 2.8% decline.