ArmInfo.The World Bank improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2019 - 5.5% with a slowdown in 2020 to 5.1%, and by 2021 the expected growth rate was maintained - 5.2%. Earlier, in the June forecast, the World Bank's expectations for Armenia's GDP growth for 2019 and 2020 were lower - 4.2% and 4.9%, respectively. An updated forecast was published in the World Bank's October report-economic review "Migration and Brain Drain. World Bank Europe and Central Asia Economic Update".
"In Armenia, the projected medium-term growth of GDP is above 5%, supported by fiscal stimulus and more extensive private investment in response to the active implementation of reform programs. With continued economic growth, poverty levels will continue to decline. Challenges to the economic prospects of Armenia include uncertain global prospects growth, gaps in internal infrastructure, human capital, and the country's potential to fundamentally reform its economy towards sustainable on export-led growth ", - stated in the World Bank report.
The WB forecasts for the growth of GDP of the EAEU countries are as follows: Russia - in 2019 by 1% (against the previously expected 1.2%) with an acceleration in 2020 to 1.7% (previously expected 1.8%) and in 2021 - to 1.8 %; Belarus - in 2019 by 1.5% (against the previously expected 1.8%) with a slowdown in 2020 to 1.3% (the same pace was previously expected) and in 2021 to 1.2% (the same pace was previously expected); Kazakhstan - in 2019 by 3.9% (previously expected 3.5%) with a slowdown in 2020 to 3.5% and an acceleration of these rates in 2021 to 3.7% (against 3.2% previously expected for 2020- 2021) ; Kyrgyzstan - in 2019 by 4.2% (previously expected 4.3%) with a slowdown in 2020 to 3.7% (previously expected 4%) and maintaining these rates (3.7%) in 2021 (against the previously expected 4.1%).
In the countries neighboring Armenia, the WB predicts: Georgia - in 2019, GDP growth by 4.4% (previously expected 4.6%) with a slowdown in 2020 to 4.3% (previously expected 4.8%) and an acceleration in 2021 to 4.5% (previously expected 5%); Azerbaijan - in 2019 GDP growth of 2.8% (previously expected 3.3%) with a slowdown in 2020 to 2.3% (previously expected 3.5%) and in 2021 to 2.1% (previously expected 3.7 %). In terms of Turkey's GDP, the World Bank predicts stagnation for 2019 - 0% with a 3% increase in 2020, and 4% growth in 2021, compared to the 1% growth previously expected for 2019 and the same 3 % and 4% for 2020 and 2021.
The highest economic growth among the countries of Europe and Central Asia, according to the updated World Bank forecast for 2019, is projected in Tajikistan - 6.2%, followed by Armenia and Uzbekistan - with the same forecast GDP growth of 5.5%, and Turkmenistan - with GDP growth of 5%. And according to the forecast of GDP growth for 2020, the World Bank expects the highest rates in Uzbekistan - 5.7%, Tajikistan - 5.5% and Armenia - 5.1%.
It should be noted that the IMF predicts Armenia's GDP growth in 2019 by 4.6% with a slowdown in 2020 to 4.5%. The Central Bank of Armenia predicts for 2019 GDP growth in Armenia in the range of 6.7-7.2% (against the actual 5.2% in 2018). The state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2019 contains a growth of GDP of 4.9%.