ArmInfo. The decrease in demand in foreign markets is more noticeable for the economies of countries with commodity dependence, while countries whose priority is the service sector will be more resistant to external shocks.
On October 21, this was noted by an economist, lawmaker of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia from the My Step faction, Artak Manukyan. Nevertheless, according to him, the successful economic performance of these countries will largely depend on the economic policies of states in terms of the level of investment policy and the strengthening of infrastructures.
''Given all these factors, this year Armenia has the opportunity to record higher growth rates than the global average. In particular, over the past 5 years, the average growth of the world economy amounted to 2.89%, while in Armenia this indicator reached 3.94%. Over the past 5 years, we have managed to develop somewhere by 1.1% point faster than the world'', the MP said.
At the same time, referring to the 4.9% economic growth projected in the RA budget for 2020 against the forecasted growth of the global economy by 3.5%, Manukyan noted that in comparison with the global situation, the growth rate of the Armenian economy is higher . However, if we consider this indicator from the point of view of desires and potential, then, of course, the country has a significant untapped potential. To ensure double-digit growth indicators, according to the MP, it is necessary to create prerequisites that are possible only if invested in social and other infrastructures. In this vein, Manukyan referred to the expenditures of the state budget for 2020, where, as he noted, important messages are contained, in particular regarding infrastructure investments - roads and human capital. "The expenditures are aimed at achieving higher economic growth in the future," he stressed.
To note, according to the draft state budget for 2020, the country plans to implement ambitious infrastructure programs, increasing both current and capital costs. With a projected budget deficit of 2.6% of GDP, capital expenditures will amount to 5% of GDP. The level of tax collection is projected at around 22.6% of GDP and will become 0.3% points higher than in the revised budget for 2019.
This year, in connection with the reorganization of the management system in the direction of greater cost- effectiveness and the neutralization of corruption risks, the government has seriously underperformed the capital expenditures program. Since the beginning of the year, the surplus of funds amounted to 100 billion drams (1.5% of GDP). It should be noted that the World Bank improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2019 - 5.5%, with a slowdown in 2020 to 5.1%, and by 2021 the expected growth rate was maintained - 5.2%. The IMF predicts a 6.0% increase in Armenia's GDP in 2019 with a slowdown in 2020 to 4.5%. The Central Bank of Armenia predicts for 2019 GDP growth in Armenia in the range of 6.7-7.2% (against the actual 5.2% in 2018). The state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2019 contains a growth of GDP of 4.9%.