Tuesday, November 5 2019 18:07
Alina Hovhannisyan

CBA forecast: Economic growth may reach 7.1% in 2019 in Armenia

CBA forecast: Economic growth may reach 7.1% in 2019 in Armenia

ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia does not exclude that by the end of the year the economic growth rate of the Republic of Armenia will reach 7.1%, and it sees  the industrial sector and the service sector in drivers. Head of the  Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank of the Republic of  Armenia Vahagn Grigoryan stated this at a press conference on  November 5.

In this vein, he recalled that in the September forecast of the  Central Bank for 2019, economic growth was expected to be 6.9%, and  the drivers indicated were the industrial sector and services, with  projected growth of over 9%, while in the construction sector a much  more modest growth was expected, and in agriculture - a continuation  of the recession.

, he stressed.

Among the factors that will contribute to the acceleration of  economic growth, Grigoryan also noted the level of private  consumption, which occupies a significant share in the structure of  GDP. However, in this regard, he drew attention to the fact that  export growth prevails over import dynamics. "This will also have a  positive effect on GDP growth," said Grigoryan. The basis for  positive forecasts, he said, was also the growth rate of productivity  as a result of structural changes.

It is noteworthy that the Regulator revised its estimates regarding  the long-term forecast for the economic growth of the Republic of  Armenia - from 4.5% to 5%. As Grigoryan noted, the forecast  improvement is due to the situation on the labor market. In this  vein, he explained that the migration balance has always been  negative, however, in 2018, positive trends became visible, and this  indicator approached the zero mark. According to the Central Bank  forecast, positive trends in the RA labor market from the point of  view of labor supply will continue. "We hope that in the future we  will not encounter negative dynamics," he emphasized.

Speaking about the processes in the global economy, in particular the  US-China trade war and its impact on the Armenian market, the Central  Bank representative noted that such phenomena add uncertainty to the  global economy, but are not so tangible for Armenia yet. , he said.  To recall, in the program of monetary policy  of the Central Bank for the III quarter of 2019, published at the end  of September, the Central Bank of Armenia once again improved its  forecast for GDP growth for 2019 to 6.7-7.2% (an average of 6.9 %)  from the previous 5.9-7.4% (an average of 6.6%), and for 2020 GDP  growth is expected in the range of 4.2-5.9% (an average of 5%)  against the previous 4.5- 5.0% (average 4.7%).

To note, according to the updated in October this year World Bank  forecast for 2019, GDP growth in Armenia will be 5.5%, with a  slowdown in 2020 to 5.1% and an acceleration in 2021 to 5.2%. The  state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2019 contains a growth of  GDP of 4.9%. According to the updated IMF forecast, Armenia's GDP  growth in 2019 will amount to 4.6% with a slowdown in 2020 to 4.5%. 

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     


News


Exchange rates
26.02.2020
RUB7.28-0.03
USD478.390.06
EUR520.923.46
GBP619.28-2.12
CAD359.61-0.20
JPY43.370.04
CNY68.220.11
CHF491.063.37



Search by date

Government Bonds

Issue volume

10 billion

Volume of T-bills for placement

200 million

Volume of submitted competitive applications

200 million

Volume of satisfied bids

200 million

Yield at cut-off price

 5.8314%

Maximum yield

 5.8314%

Мinimum yield

 5.8314%

Weighted average yield

 5.8314%

Number of participants

2

The maturity date of T-bills

03.02.2020

ArmEx

 

СПРОС (Покупка)

USD

Средневзв. Цена

482,00

ПРЕДЛОЖЕНИЕ (Продажа)

  USD

Средневзв. Цена

-

СДЕЛКИ

USD

Цена откр.

482,00

Цена закр.

482,00

Мин. Цена

482,00

Макс. Цена

482,00

Ср/взв. Цена

482,00

-0.16

Кол-во сделок

1

Объем (инвал.)

200 000

0бъем (драм)

96 400 000