ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia does not exclude that by the end of the year the economic growth rate of the Republic of Armenia will reach 7.1%, and it sees the industrial sector and the service sector in drivers. Head of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia Vahagn Grigoryan stated this at a press conference on November 5.
In this vein, he recalled that in the September forecast of the Central Bank for 2019, economic growth was expected to be 6.9%, and the drivers indicated were the industrial sector and services, with projected growth of over 9%, while in the construction sector a much more modest growth was expected, and in agriculture - a continuation of the recession.
, he stressed.
Among the factors that will contribute to the acceleration of economic growth, Grigoryan also noted the level of private consumption, which occupies a significant share in the structure of GDP. However, in this regard, he drew attention to the fact that export growth prevails over import dynamics. "This will also have a positive effect on GDP growth," said Grigoryan. The basis for positive forecasts, he said, was also the growth rate of productivity as a result of structural changes.
It is noteworthy that the Regulator revised its estimates regarding the long-term forecast for the economic growth of the Republic of Armenia - from 4.5% to 5%. As Grigoryan noted, the forecast improvement is due to the situation on the labor market. In this vein, he explained that the migration balance has always been negative, however, in 2018, positive trends became visible, and this indicator approached the zero mark. According to the Central Bank forecast, positive trends in the RA labor market from the point of view of labor supply will continue. "We hope that in the future we will not encounter negative dynamics," he emphasized.
Speaking about the processes in the global economy, in particular the US-China trade war and its impact on the Armenian market, the Central Bank representative noted that such phenomena add uncertainty to the global economy, but are not so tangible for Armenia yet. , he said. To recall, in the program of monetary policy of the Central Bank for the III quarter of 2019, published at the end of September, the Central Bank of Armenia once again improved its forecast for GDP growth for 2019 to 6.7-7.2% (an average of 6.9 %) from the previous 5.9-7.4% (an average of 6.6%), and for 2020 GDP growth is expected in the range of 4.2-5.9% (an average of 5%) against the previous 4.5- 5.0% (average 4.7%).
To note, according to the updated in October this year World Bank forecast for 2019, GDP growth in Armenia will be 5.5%, with a slowdown in 2020 to 5.1% and an acceleration in 2021 to 5.2%. The state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2019 contains a growth of GDP of 4.9%. According to the updated IMF forecast, Armenia's GDP growth in 2019 will amount to 4.6% with a slowdown in 2020 to 4.5%.