Wednesday, December 25 2019 18:31
Karine Melikyan

CBA forecasts likelihood of stagnation in net inflow of private  transfers for 2019 

CBA forecasts likelihood of stagnation in net inflow of private  transfers for 2019 

ArmInfo.The Central Bank of Armenia has narrowed the forecast range for the growth of the net inflow of private transfers for 2019 - to 0-2%, against the  previously worsened forecast range from 5-7% to 1-3%.

But for 2020, the Central Bank forecasts a recovery in the growth rate of  individuals' money transfers to 7-9%, due to the positive growth  trends in the Russian economy, from where the dominant volume of  private transfers comes to Armenia. This is stated in the Central  Bank's monetary policy program for the Q4 of 2019, published at the  end of December, where the range of GDP growth in Armenia for 2019 is  projected at 7-7.3% (7.2% on average), compared to the previous  6.7-7.2% (average 6.9%).

It is noteworthy that the Central Bank of Armenia also worsened the  forecast for the growth of the net inflow of private transfers when  it published expectations for 2018 (to 1-3% from the previous 5-7%),  and as it turned out later, the updated range turned out to be closer  to the actual y-o-y rates fixed later ( 1.7%).

It is worth noting that the World Bank forecasts Russia's GDP growth  in Russia by 1.2% in 2019 with acceleration in 2020 to 1.8%, against  the actual growth in 2018 by 2%. And in terms of GDP growth in  Armenia, the World Bank improved its forecast for 2019 to 6.9% (from  the previous 5.5%), against the actual growth in 2018 by 5.2%.

According to the Central Bank of Armenia, the inflow of transfers of  individuals to Armenia slowed down the growth in 2018 to 1.7% from  14.6% in 2017, amounting to $ 1.786 billion. At the same time, the  growth rate of the outflow of transfers slowed slightly - from 21.2%  in 2017 to 20, 1% in 2018, amounting to $ 1.188 billion. This  worsened the dynamics of the net inflow of transfers from 7.1% growth  in 2017 to 22.1% decline in 2018, forming at the level of $ 597.2  million. Russia's share in the inflow decreased in 2018 from 60.6% to  58.8%, and in outflow, on the contrary, increased from 38% to 39.7%.   The inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia in 2018 turned the  trend vector downward by 1.4% from an 18.7% growth in 2017. At the  same time, the growth of outflow of money in the Russian Federation  accelerated in 2018 to 25.4% from 12.8% in 2017. This worsened the  dynamics of the net inflow of transfers from Russia from a 22.2%  growth in 2017 to a 16.1% decline in 2018.

According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia,  Armenia's GDP growth slowed in 2018 to 5.2% from 7.5% in 2017,  amounting to 6.005 trillion drams ($ 12.4 billion). The GDP deflator  index in 2018 amounted to 102.5%, against 102.1% in 2017. According  to the results of January-November 2019, economic activity in Armenia  increased by 7.5% per annum and the services sector (14.8%), the  industrial sector (9.3%) and trade (9.2%) acted as growth drivers.  

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