ArmInfo.The Central Bank of Armenia has narrowed the forecast range for the growth of the net inflow of private transfers for 2019 - to 0-2%, against the previously worsened forecast range from 5-7% to 1-3%.
But for 2020, the Central Bank forecasts a recovery in the growth rate of individuals' money transfers to 7-9%, due to the positive growth trends in the Russian economy, from where the dominant volume of private transfers comes to Armenia. This is stated in the Central Bank's monetary policy program for the Q4 of 2019, published at the end of December, where the range of GDP growth in Armenia for 2019 is projected at 7-7.3% (7.2% on average), compared to the previous 6.7-7.2% (average 6.9%).
It is noteworthy that the Central Bank of Armenia also worsened the forecast for the growth of the net inflow of private transfers when it published expectations for 2018 (to 1-3% from the previous 5-7%), and as it turned out later, the updated range turned out to be closer to the actual y-o-y rates fixed later ( 1.7%).
It is worth noting that the World Bank forecasts Russia's GDP growth in Russia by 1.2% in 2019 with acceleration in 2020 to 1.8%, against the actual growth in 2018 by 2%. And in terms of GDP growth in Armenia, the World Bank improved its forecast for 2019 to 6.9% (from the previous 5.5%), against the actual growth in 2018 by 5.2%.
According to the Central Bank of Armenia, the inflow of transfers of individuals to Armenia slowed down the growth in 2018 to 1.7% from 14.6% in 2017, amounting to $ 1.786 billion. At the same time, the growth rate of the outflow of transfers slowed slightly - from 21.2% in 2017 to 20, 1% in 2018, amounting to $ 1.188 billion. This worsened the dynamics of the net inflow of transfers from 7.1% growth in 2017 to 22.1% decline in 2018, forming at the level of $ 597.2 million. Russia's share in the inflow decreased in 2018 from 60.6% to 58.8%, and in outflow, on the contrary, increased from 38% to 39.7%. The inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia in 2018 turned the trend vector downward by 1.4% from an 18.7% growth in 2017. At the same time, the growth of outflow of money in the Russian Federation accelerated in 2018 to 25.4% from 12.8% in 2017. This worsened the dynamics of the net inflow of transfers from Russia from a 22.2% growth in 2017 to a 16.1% decline in 2018.
According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, Armenia's GDP growth slowed in 2018 to 5.2% from 7.5% in 2017, amounting to 6.005 trillion drams ($ 12.4 billion). The GDP deflator index in 2018 amounted to 102.5%, against 102.1% in 2017. According to the results of January-November 2019, economic activity in Armenia increased by 7.5% per annum and the services sector (14.8%), the industrial sector (9.3%) and trade (9.2%) acted as growth drivers.