ArmInfo.According to the updated forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, in 2019 the unemployment rate will be 18.9%, with a subsequent y-o-y decline in the medium term by 0.2-0.5 pp to 17.3%. This forecast is given in the Central Bank's Monetary Policy program published at the end of December for the Q4 of 2019, which also noted an improvement in the forecast for GDP growth for 2019 - 7-7.3% (against the previous 6.7-7, 2%).
The Central Bank has revised its forecast for unemployment rate, taking into account the downward trend observed since the beginning of 2019. According to the dynamics of nominal wages, the Central Bank forecasts its growth in the private sector in 2019 by 3.9%, and in 2020, due to an increase in the minimum wage threshold, the growth will amount to 8.1%.
In a previous forecast, the Central Bank noted that the unemployment rate in 2019 will be 21.7% (calculated according to the new methodology), with a subsequent y-o-y decline in the medium term by 0.1-0.2 pp to 20%. At the same time, the Central Bank explained that it would henceforth indicate the forecast unemployment rate in the calculation according to the new method, against the previously cited indicators calculated according to the old method, which is due to a similar revision by the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia of the methodology for calculating the unemployment rate.
It should be noted that at the end of 2018, the actual unemployment rate (calculated according to the old method) completely coincided with the Central Bank forecast - 16.3%, and at the end of 2017 the actual level was lower than the forecasted by the Central Bank - 17.8% against the expected 17.9%. According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, the unemployment rate in Armenia, calculated according to the new methodology, decreased in 2018 to 20.4% of the y-o-y average from 20.8% in 2017. And in the calculation according to the old method, a decrease in the unemployment rate in 2018 was recorded to 16.3% of the average y-o-y from 17.8% in 2017. To note, the new calculation method does not take into account those employed in the household. For the Q2 of 2019, the unemployment rate in Armenia, calculated by the new method, decreased from 21.9% to 17.7% (against 20.2% a year earlier), due to a y-o-y decrease in the number of unemployed people by 12.4%. According to statistical data, as of January 1, 2019, according to the new methodology, the number of employed people reached 915.5 thousand (with a y-o-y growth of 1.4%) or 45.4% of the economically active population (versus 44.7% in 2017), while there were 234 thousand unemployed people (with a y-o-y decline of 1.1%). According to the old methodology, the employed population reached 1073.8 thousand people (with a y-o-y growth of 6.1%) or 53.3% of the economically active population (against 50.1% in 2017), and there were 208.4 thousand people unemployed (with a y-o-y decline of 4.8%).