ArmInfo.The financial sector of Armenia softened expectations for annual inflation, assuming a probability of a level near 3%, against the previously estimated 3.15%. This is evidenced by a new survey of the Central Bank of the financial system participants, the results of which are presented in the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia monetary policy program for the fourth quarter of 2019, published at the end of December.
Households have similar expectations, the survey results of which suggest the gradual strengthening of price stability.
It is worth noting that the Central Bank has once again improved its forecast for GDP growth for 2019 - up to 7-7.3% (7.2% on average) from the previous 6.7-7.2% (6.9% on average). The Central Bank also improved its forecast for both import growth for 2019 to 4-6% from the previous 1-3%, and export growth to 9-11% from the previous 5-7%. Along with this, the Central Bank softened the forecast for the unemployment rate expecting at the end of 2019 18.9% (instead of the previously forecasted 21.7%), with a subsequent annual decline in the medium term by 0.2-0.5 percentage points to 17, 3% (against the previously expected 20%).
According to statistical data, in the consumer market of Armenia, in a monthly breakdown during 2019, deflation was recorded from April to August inclusive, and the remaining months were slightly inflationary (within 0.2-1.8%). In y-o-y terms (the reporting month of 2019 to the same month of 2018), inflation was observed throughout the current year, rising from January 0.6% to May 2.8%, followed by a decrease to September 0.5%, after which there was an increase to November 1%. In January-November 2019, deflation was recorded at 0.5%, due to the cheapening of food products by 2.4%. The average monthly decline in consumer prices in January-November 2019 amounted to 0.05%, against an increase of 0.03% a year earlier