Thursday, December 26 2019 15:11

CBA poll: Armenian financial sector reconsiders inflation  expectations

CBA poll: Armenian financial sector reconsiders inflation  expectations

ArmInfo.The financial sector of Armenia softened expectations for annual inflation, assuming a probability of a level near 3%, against the previously estimated  3.15%.  This is evidenced by a new survey of the Central Bank of the  financial system participants, the results of which are presented in  the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia monetary policy program  for the fourth quarter of 2019, published at the end of December.

Households have similar expectations, the survey results of which  suggest the gradual strengthening of price stability.

It is worth noting that the Central Bank has once again improved its  forecast for GDP growth for 2019 - up to 7-7.3% (7.2% on average)  from the previous 6.7-7.2% (6.9% on average). The Central Bank also  improved its forecast for both import growth for 2019 to 4-6% from  the previous 1-3%, and export growth to 9-11% from the previous 5-7%.  Along with this, the Central Bank softened the forecast for the  unemployment rate expecting at the end of 2019 18.9% (instead of the  previously forecasted 21.7%), with a subsequent annual decline in the  medium term by 0.2-0.5 percentage points to 17, 3% (against the  previously expected 20%).

According to statistical data, in the consumer market of Armenia, in  a monthly breakdown during 2019, deflation was recorded from April to  August inclusive, and the remaining months were slightly inflationary  (within 0.2-1.8%). In y-o-y terms (the reporting month of 2019 to the  same month of 2018), inflation was observed throughout the current  year, rising from January 0.6% to May 2.8%, followed by a decrease to  September 0.5%, after which there was an increase to November 1%. In  January-November 2019, deflation was recorded at 0.5%, due to the  cheapening of food products by 2.4%. The average monthly decline in  consumer prices in January-November 2019 amounted to 0.05%, against  an increase of 0.03% a year earlier

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In Jan-Nov 2019, Armenia`s consumer market recorded a deflation of  0.5% with y-o-y inflation of 1.5%
 Wednesday, December 4 2019

ArmInfo. In November 2019, 1.1% inflation was recorded in the consumer market of Armenia, caused by the rise in price of food products by 2.3%, non-food products - by  0.2%, with the same tariffs for services. In the capital, consumer  prices rose 1.1% in November. In January-November 2019, deflation of  0.5% was due to a decrease in the price of food products by 2.4%,  with a rise in price of non-food products by 1.4% and an increase in  tariffs for services by 0.9%.

 Monday, December 2 2019

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Fitch grades Armenia up, the forecast is sustainable. 
 Sunday, November 24 2019

ArmInfo. On November 22, 2019, Fitch Ratings international rating agency increased Armenia's long-term issuer default ratings (IDRs) in foreign and national  currencies by one scale - to the level of <BB-> with the forecast  as  Stable. This was reported by the press service of the Central Bank of  Armenia.

 Thursday, November 21 2019


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