ArmInfo. The direct impact on the growth of GDP potential of the resumption of construction of the Amulsar mine in 2020 is estimated at 1-1.6%, and taking into account indirect effects, the stimulating effect will be higher.
This forecast is given in the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia monetary policy program published at the end of December for the Q4 of 2019, where the expectations for GDP growth for 2019 are improved to 7-7.3% (7.2% on average), compared to the previous estimated 6.7-7.2% (average 6.9%)
The Central Bank draws attention to the fact that the scenario of the monetary policy does not take into account the activities of the Amulsar mine and the Alaverdi copper-molybdenum plant, but the outgoing potential impact is considered in the predicted risks.
According to statistical data, in January-October 2019 to the same period of 2018 the mining industry started a trend in the direction of 20.5% growth from a 13% decline a year earlier, providing a volume of 291.4 billion drams. A sharp improvement in the dynamics of this industry allowed the industrial sector as a whole to recover in GDP drivers both in terms of growth and volume. In the structure of industrial production, the share of the mining industry in the reporting period amounted to 17.7%, which is similar to the y-o-y indicator (17.8%), but lower than the level of 2017 (20.5%).
At the end of 2018, the mining industry was in a decline of 14% with a volume of 300.7 billion drams, while in 2017, an increase of 13.9% was recorded. In the structure of industrial production, the share of the mining industry decreased in 2018 from 20.3% to 17.3%.
It should be noted that according to the World Bank forecast for Armenia updated in December, GDP growth for 2019 was improved to 6.9%, against the previously expected 5.5%. In an earlier (October) forecast of the World Bank, it was noted that the industrial sector of Armenia will show growth of 4.1% in 2019, with an acceleration of rates to 5.4% in 2020 and 5.8% in 2021. But the statistical data for January- November 2019 already testifies to the high growth rates of the industrial sector - 9.3%, with an increase in economic activity by 7.5%.