Wednesday, March 2 2011 18:18
Expert: There will be no two-digit inflation in Armenia in fist half of 2011
ArmInfo. In the first half of 2011 inflation in Armenia will reach 9-10%, but there will be no two-digit inflation in the country, Director for Development of Ameriabank Tigran Jrbashyan said when commenting on development of inflationary processes in the first half of the current year.
He stressed that at the moment there are no premises for a two-digit inflation; on the contrary, some circumstances, particularly, maintenance of the Russian gas prices have dampened the population's inflation expectations. He recalled that the price growth reflects the inflation expectations of the population and pointed out that the inflation in 2010 was mostly connected with this factor.
When commenting on the effectiveness of the monetary policy conducted by the Central Bank of Armenia, Jrbashyan pointed out that there is no direct link between the CBA tools and the object of their influence. He added that the effectiveness of the monetary policy conducted by the Central Banks of developed countries and the degree of its impact on the domestic economic processes is much higher than in Armenia. "One should understand that in conditions of an undeveloped financial market, the efficiency of monetary policy tools is not high, but the megaregulator has no alternative tools", stressed the expert.
Jrbashyan thinks that the CBA is trying to influence the inflation expectations by means of its tools, but in the global sense inflation is connected with the attractiveness of business environment rather than with monetary policy.
According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in Feb 2011 inflation in Armenia made up 1.9%. In 2010 the official level of inflation in Armenia made up 9.4%. In the food market 14% inflation was fixed in 2010, in the nonfood market – 4.6%. The tariffs for services rose by 4.2%.
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