Friday, April 22 2011 17:27
Expert: Armenia needs much more filigree and efficient solutions which would be sensitive to impulses
ArmInfo. Armenia has for the first time found itself in the situation, when there is no other way out but taking not only much more filigree and efficient decisions but also decisions which are much more sensitive to foreign impulses, Ameriabank's Development Director, well-known analyst Tigran Jrbashyan said at today's press conference.
This is a very serious challenge for the country's economic authorities, because this is the situation when a wrong perception of foreign impulses may lead the system to instability, he said. He added that earlier there were no such complicated domestic and foreign economic factors in the country, and the decisions taken earlier were to some extent clumsy.
The economic authorities and the government of the country face a serious trade fair show, said Jrbashyan. "There is inflationary pressure, and it is quite serious, and, what is the most interesting, it is mostly imported. Today the prices are growing worldwide and it is clear that the price growth via import is transformed into inflation in Armenia as well", he said. He recalled that the monetary authorities of the country have an opportunity to influence the inflation by means of the monetary policy and via some elements of economic policy, which are not so effective as they have a long-term impact.
"That is to say, there is only one way to influence the current situation - to toughen the monetary policy", he said and added that such a policy presses the national currency exchange rate: "The exchange rate starts falling, because only this will allow dampening the so-called "imported" inflation in the domestic market, which has a negative effect on the economic situation".
Jrbashyan pointed out that the country has two serious tasks: fighting the imported inflation and the necessity of economic development, though he could not specify which of them is of more significance to economy.
The expert forecasts that the Armenian Dram exchange rate will be stably growing, inflation will not reach a two-digit index by late summer, economic growth will make up about 4%, and the rates will be gradually rising.
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