Tuesday, March 20 2012 17:52
Over Q1 2012 economic activity index in Armenia up from 68.7% to 134.1%, business climate index up from 91.6% to 101.5%
ArmInfo. Over Q1 2012 the economic activity index in Armenia was up from 68.7% to 134.1% (down from 128.3% to 98.3% versus Q1 2011 due to worsening of expectations). The decline versus Q1 2011 was conditioned by growth of the tariffs of services. The press service of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) told ArmInfo that over the period under review economic activity rose in industry, construction and trade. For the next quarter the construction and trade organizations expect inflow of investments and increase in their staffs. The decline in the demand in all spheres was the main obstacle to activity expansion.
The source says that over Q1 2012 the business climate index was up from 91.6% to 101.5% (down from 94.2% to 104.9% due to improvement of expectations in all spheres, except the industrial sector). Both actual and expected sub-indices rose. Nevertheless, the final result of the respondents was fixed below 50, i.e. it was lower than the stable level because the number of the respondents expecting worsening was higher than the number of those expecting improvement.
The indices are calculated by averaging out the balances of actual estimations and expectations. The actual balance of economic activity is calculated by the respondents' assessments concerning the production output and the demand level, and the balance of expectations - by the possible output for the next quarter, the demand for the products or services, and the reserves.
To recall, the CBA has been conducting this survey among the enterprises engaged in industry, construction and services, including retail trade, since 2005. The survey aims to assess the current economic situation and the expectations. The methodology is based on the principles worked out by Conference Board (USA) and IFO Institute (Germany).
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