Tuesday, October 7 2014 17:55

Central Bank of Armenia changes its forecast for export growth for 2014


ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) has changed the outlook for the real export growth in commodities and services for the second time. The CBA's monetary policy program for Q3 2014 says that in H2 2014 the export of commodities and services from Armenia will increase by 2-4% versus the previously forecast 5.5-7.5%. The previous CB forecast envisaged 11- 13% export growth in 2014.

The new forecast is adjusted with due regard for the lower than expected export growth in H1 2014 and reduced forecast for the world economy growth rates.

The CBA also expects the import of commodities and services to drop from 2-4% to 1.5-3.5% versus the previously forecast 3-5%. The CBA explains the forecast change by the reduction of the GDP growth forecast and by the actually fixed index.

The CBA expects the current account deficit against GDP to grow to 9-10% versus the previously forecast 7.5-8.5%, and to 5-6% within the mid-term outlook.

According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in 2013 Armenia's foreign trade turnover amounted to $6 bln (2.4 trillion AMD, up 5.6% versus 2012). Exports totaled $1.5 bln (606 bln AMD, up 7.2% versus 2012); imports totaled $4.5 bln (1.8 trillion AMD, up 5% versus 2012). The unfavorable balance of the foreign trade turnover amounted to $3 bln (1.226 trillion AMD, up 4% versus 2012).
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