Wednesday, February 25 2015 14:43
Non-commercial personal remittances to Armenia down 26% and from Armenia up 24% for December 2014
ArmInfo. Non-commercial personal remittances to Armenia were down 26% per and from Armenia up 24% for December 2014. As a result, the net inflow of remittances reduced by 54%. The inflow of remittances from Russia to Armenia dropped by 37% for December 2014, while from Armenia to Russia was up 26%. This reduced the net inflow from Russia by 47%.
The monthly report of the Armenian Central Bank says that inflow of personal remittances via the banking system of Armenia for 2014 totaled $2.1 bln - by 9% less than in 2013, and the outflow grew by 6% - up to $903 mln. In fact, net inflow of non-commercial remittances for Jan-Dec 2014 was down 20% and amounted to $1.2 bln. From the volume of remittances to Armenia for 2014, 81% or $1,7 billion are non-commercial remittances of individual persons.
The share of Russia in the structure of inflow and outflow in 2014 still dominates - 72% and 28% respectively. Incidentally, the share of Russia in inflow reduced by 74%, but in outflow remains the same. The total of $1,6 billion (by 6% less versus 2013) remittances of individual persons went from Russia to Armenia in 2014, and $253 million - from Armenia to Russia (growth by 8%). As a result, the net inflow amounted to $1.3 billion - by 13% less than in 2013.
The USA is the second by the volume of inflows to Armenia - 7,4% versus 6,6% in 2013 or $156 million - by 2% more than in 2013. The USA is also the second by the volume of remittances from Armenia - 16,7% (versus 15,7% in 2013) or $151 million - by 13% more than in 2013.
Germany is the third by the volume of inflows to Armenia - 1,6% (versus 1,1% in 2013) or $34,5 million - by 35% more than in 2013. China is the third by the volume of outflow from Armenia - 9,2% (versus 10,1% in 2013) or $82,6 million - by 3,5% less than in 2013.
The inflow of remittances of individual persons from Spain, Turkey, UAE, China and Ukraine to Armenia also reduced in 2014, from China - by 34%, UAE - by 17% and Ukraine - by 13%. As for the outflow of remittances from Armenia, it reduced, but not to Russia, the USA, Kazakhstan and Spain. Incidentally, the outflow of remittances from Armenia to Ukraine reduced most of all - by 41%.
Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) has forecasted a 30% decline of personal transfers (in terms of US dollar) in 2015, and a growth of transfers in Russia rubles with certain slackening. According to the monetary policy program of the CBA for Q1 2015, net flow of non-commercial personal transfers via the banking system of Armenia fell 30.5% in Q4 2014. Russia accounts for over 80% of total money transfers to Armenia. The decline is forecasted given such factors as the sudden devaluation of the Russia rubles against the US solar in Q4 2014 and the anticipated economic decline in Russia in 2015. In particular, a 2%-3.8% economic decline is anticipated in Russia in 2015 and the downward trend will continue in 2016. In 2017, it is forecasted that the economic activity will be recovered and will experience up to 1% growth by the end of 2017. According to the CBA, in 2015 the economic growth in Armenia will slacken and make up 0.4%-2% versus 3.5%-3.5% in late 2014. According to the World Bank forecasts, the economic growth in Armenia will total 3.3% versus 2.6% in 2014. In 2016, GDP of Armenia may reach 3.7% and in 2017 - 4.1%. The draft budget of Armenia for 2015 is based on a 4.1% growth of the real GDP.
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