Saturday, November 7 2015 18:24
Karina Melikyan

In November 2015 Armenian dram displays signs of depreciation again

In November 2015 Armenian dram displays signs of depreciation again

ArmInfo. The interbank forex market alone with its small transactions, amid the passive stock exchange, failed to prevent the Armenian dram from depreciation (up from 473 to 478 AMD/1USD). The intervention of the Central Bank is not ruled out given the comparatively large amount of transactions on the interbank forex market at the beginning and at the end of the current week.

Thus, on November 2-6, no forex transactions were registered on NASDAQ OMX Armenia, while the interbank forex market saw a 30.2% growth. As a result, after the September appreciation from 484 to 473 AMD/1USD, the Dram started revaluating in the first half of October to 474AMD/1USD, making up 471 AMD/1USD by October 23, totaling 473AMD/1USD (as much as in early October) on October 30, and eventually made up 478 AMD/1USD by November 6.   

According to the CBA press office, on November 2-6, no transactions were registered on NASDAQ OMX Armenia The transactions on the forex interbank market within the week under review totaled $5.6 mln, forming the exchange rate at the level of 477.82 AMD/1USD. The Central Bank probably made an intervention, given the big transactions this week (on Tuesday and Thursday. The latest large intervention of the Central Bank was on Oct 2 - supposedly $6 
million, on Sept 19 - $22.2mln, and on August 28 - $95 mln. 
 
The source says that on November 2-6, on the intrabank currency market (transactions with customers) the banks bought $62.5 mln (23% decline versus the previous week) at the average exchange rate of 474.45 AMD/$1, and sold $65.9 mln (4% decline) at the average exchange rate of 475.99 AMD/$1. In the meantime, the banks bought 5.9 mln EUR (up 11%) at the average exchange rate of 519.21 AMD/1EUR, and sold 17.2 mln EUR (down 18%) at the exchange rate of 523.24 AMD/1EUR.
 
The banks also bought 985.8 mln RUR (30% growth) at the average exchange rate of 7.42 AMD/1RUR and sold 284.8 mln RUR (12.5% drop) at the exchange rate of 7.57 AMD/1RUR. During the previous week (October 26-November 1) the Armenian banks provided AMD loans worth 49.1 bln AMD and USD loans worth $60 mln. As compared with the previous week (October 19-25), AMD loans increased by 3% and the ones in terms of USD grew by 61%.   
 
To recall, during the last months of 2014 the forex market of Armenia registered a sharp rise of the AMD/USD exchange rate - over 570 AMD/1USD. From October through December 17, 2014, AMD depreciated by almost 45% in the retail forex market of Armenia, then it appreciated by 25% on Dec 18-20, staring depreciating against on Dec 22.  On Dec 27, the average AMD/USD exchange rate was 470 AMD/$1, the AMD/EUR exchange rate was 574 AMD/1EUR, the AMD/RUR exchange rate was 8.7 AMD/1RUR.  Over 2014, NASDAQ OMX Armenia registered transactions worth a total of $744.5 mln, with the biggest amount falling on November ($117 mln). Over the year the exchange rate on NASDAQ OMX Armenia rose from 407.14 to 560 AMD/$1 (on Dec 17 the exchange rate rose by 22%), dropping to 470 AMD/$1 by Dec 27. In 2014, in the retail forex market of Armenia, the AMD depreciated against USD by 40%, with the maximum indicator (570 AMD) fixed on Dec 17 and the minimum (406 AMD) registered in July. In the course of the 9 months of 2015, in the retail forex market AMD appreciated from 477 to 473 
against USD; from 571.5 to 532 against EUR, at the same time depreciating from 8.2 to 7.2 against RUR. In October, the average USD/AMD exchange rate was floating.  On October 30, it made up 473 AMD/1$. The national currency appreciated against EUR (520 AMD/1EUR) 
and appreciated against RUR (7.5 AMD/1RUR). In November the Armenian dram started showing signs of devaluation again, depreciating against USD (478 AMD/$1), EUR (521 AMD/1EUR) and RUR (7 AMD/1RUR).
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