Inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia down 38% by October 1

ArmInfo. In Jan-Sept 2015 versus Jan-Sept 2014, the inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia dropped by 38% to $750 mln. As a result, the share of Russian transfers in the total inflow dropped from 75% to 63%. This reduced the total inflow of transfers to Armenia by 27% to $1.2 bln. The data of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) show that the transfers from the United States grew by 19% to $129.4 mln (11% of total inflow versus 7% a year before).

At the same time, the outflow of transfers from Armenia to Russia grew by 6.1% to $189.2 mln (35% of total outflow versus 27% a year before). The outflow of transfers to the United States dropped by 36% to $74.8 mln (14% of total outflow versus 18% a year before). In Jan-Sept 2015 the total outflow of transfers amounted to $535.4 mln, 18% less than in Jan-Sept 2014.

In the total amount of individuals' transfers to Armenia, the share of non-commercial transfers fell from 82% to 75% and made up $897.1 mln. In particular, the non-commercial transfers from Russia dropped over year by 38% to $684.7 mln, and those from the United States rose by 17% to $86.6 mln. At the same time, the outflow of non-commercial transfers from Armenia to Russia grew by 4.2% to $150.7 mln, and those to the United States fell by 18% to $20.8 mln. As a result, the outflow of non-commercial transfers dropped over year by 8% to $233.6 mln (44% of total outflow).

In Jan-Sept 2015 the net inflow of transfers to Armenia dropped over year by 32% to $656 mln (with Russia's share being 85.5%).

By the updated forecast of the CBA, in 2015 the individuals' transfers will drop by 25% (in USD terms) versus the previously expected 30% decline. The CBA expects the economic growth in Armenia to accelerate to 2.8-3.6% (versus the previously expected 1.6-2.6%).  In 2016 the economic growth will accelerate from 1.4-2.8% to 2.5-3.4%, and in 2017 the growth will changed from 3.4-5% to 3.5-4.5%.  Given the economic growth slowdown in Armenia's partner countries amid the deepening uncertainties and slowdown in foreign investment flow, as well as the low economic activity inside the country, the economic growth in Armenia is expected to be 4-5% in the long-term outlook. 

The 2015 state budget of Armenia envisages a 4.1% real GDP growth, and the draft state budget of 2016 envisages slowdown of economic growth to 2.2%. According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in Jan-Sept 2015 the economic activity in Armenia rose y 3.7% versus 4.3% growth a year before.   

The EBRD has upgraded its forecast for Armenia's economic growth from negative 1.5% to positive 2.3%, and forecasts 2% growth for 2016. The IMF expects 2.5% growth in 2015 and 2.2% growth in 2016. The WB expects 0.8% growth versus the previously expected 3.3%. The Asian Development Bank expects 1.6% growth, the Eurasian Development Bank - 0.8% growth, Moody's - 2.3% growth, and Fitch - 1.5% growth versus the previously expected 0.5% decline).