Central Bank cuts export growth forecast for Armenia in 2015

ArmInfo.Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) has issued its Fiscal Policy Program for Q4 2015 wherein it forecasts 7%-9% decline of import of goods and service to Armenia for 2015 in real terms versus previously forecasted 3%-5% decline. CBA cuts export growth forecast 13%- 15% versus previously predicted 15%-17%.

The new forecasts are based on the actual dynamics of the indictors in Q3: import plummeted more than expected, while export grew too slowly.  Import decline is linked to the falling demand in the market, while export growth has increased due to growing production capacities of the export-oriented sectors of economy and supply in the agricultural and mining sectors.

In this light, CBA expected certain improvement of the current account deficit to GDP for 2015 - to 3%- 4% instead of the earlier forecasted 4%-5%.

CBA forecasts slackening of the export growth to 3%-5% and decline of imports to 2%-4% due to continuous low domestic demand in 2016, amid anticipated low demand on the global market, low metal prices and slackening industrial growth.

According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, foreign trade turnover in Jan-Oct 2015totaled 1.8 trillion drams ($3.9 billion) falling 20.4% year on year. Exports suffered 2.2% y-o-y decline to 583.7 billion drams ($1.2 billion), with imports suffering 26.6% y-o-y decline to 1.3 trillion drams ($2.7 billion).