Dram strengthened against USD by 0.6% in May 2016 amid 0.4% y-o-y revaluation

 

For comparison, it should be noted that in May 2015 deflation on the consumer market totaled 0.5% amid 1.3% AMD devaluation against USD. In Jan-May amid 1.4% inflation AMD devaluated against USD by 3.6%, in May 2015 AMD devaluation against USD was 16.2% compared to May 2014 amid 5.1% inflation. In May 2014 0.8% deflation was registered along 

with AMD revaluation against USD by 0.2% in Jan-May amid 0.9% inflation AMD devaluated against USD by 2%, in May 2014 compared to the same period of 2013 AMD revalued by 0.6% amid 3.6% inflation. In May 2013 0.8% deflation was fixed on the consumer market along with AMD revaluation against USD by 0.2%, in Jan-May amid 0.9% inflation AMD revaluation against USD totaled 2%, while in May 2012 inflation was 3.6%, AMD revaluation against USD 0.6%. In Jan-May 2012 amid 0.8% inflation AMD devaluation totaled 3.7%, in May 2012 alone 1.3% deflation took place amid AMD devaluation against USD by 1.4%. In 

Jan-May 2011 amid 5% inflation AMD devaluated against USD by 3.8% and in May 2011 AMD devaluated against USD by 0.1% with no changes of consumer prices. 

 

According to the National Statistical Service, in 2015 AMD depreciated by 4.2% against USD amid 0.1% decline in consumer prices and in December 2015 alone AMD depreciated by 0.6% against USD (to 482.9 AMD/$1) amid 1.7% inflation. In 2014 AMD depreciated by 14.1% amid 4.6% inflation. In 2013, AMD revaluated by 0.1% amid 5.6% inflation.  In 2012, inflation made up 3.2% amid 5.8% depreciation of AMD.  In 2011, inflation made up 4.7% amid 6.2% devaluation of AMD versus 9.4% inflation in 2010 amid 5.2% revaluation of AMD against USD. 

 

To recall, in Oct-Dec 2014 the retail forex market of Armenia saw 45% depreciation of AMD against USD (with the most tangible depreciation fixed on Dec 17 - 570 AMD/$1).  In 2014, the total devaluation of AMD made up 40%. The previous sharp depreciation of AMD took place in 2009 (on 3 March 2009 - by 22%). In 2009 this happened because the CBA decided to return to the floating rate policy, whereas in 2014 the reason was the Russian ruble crash and the sharp decline in the private transfers, reduction in exports, tangible fall in imports and 

considerable slowdown in economic development. Since early 2016, AMD started depreciating again on the retail foreign exchange market of Armenia however since March it strengthened and stood at 482 AMD/1USD by March 25. Later, AMD started revaluating again since mid-April. By April 29, AMD depreciated against USD to 479 AMD/$1 and this trend continued in May. By May 31, AMD appreciated against USD to 478 AMD/$1, since early June it started to weaken and fixed at average 479 AMD/$1 by June 7 versus 476.24 AMD/$1 in June 7 2015 and 413.08 AMD/$1 on June 7 2014.