Outflow of private transfers from Armenia accelerates

ArmInfo. In Jan-July 2016, the  inflow of individuals' transfers to Armenia dropped by 11% versus  Jan-July 2015, and totaled $768.1 mln, while the outflow grew by  21.2% to $424.7 mln. A year before, the inflow dropped by 27.4%,  while the outflow fell by 15.7%. As compared to Jan-July 2013, the  inflow of individuals' transfers dropped by 37%, whereas the outflow  declined by 8%.  As a result, the net inflow of transfers fell by  23.2% versus Jan-July 2015, and by 54.8% versus Jan-July 2013,  totaling $343.3 mln in Jan-July 2016, according to the Central Bank  of Armenia. 

The source says that Russia's share in the inflow, which retains  leadership, dropped from 62% to 58.5%, and its share in the outflow  grew from 35% to 45%. Three years before, Russia's share in the  inflow made up 71.3%, while in the outflow it was 29.1%. In Jan-July  2016, individuals' money transfers from Russia to Armenia amounted to  $449.7 mln (down 16% versus Jan-July 2015), while the transfers from  Armenia to Russia totaled $191 mln (up 31%). As compared to Jan-July  2013, the inflow of transfers from Russia fell by 48.3%, while the  outflow from Armenia to Russia rose by 42.2%. Russia's share in the  net inflow fell from 97% to 75.4% over the past three years (86.6% in  Jan-July 2015). The prevalence of the inflow from Russia over the  outflow from Armenia dropped 8.5-fold to 1.8-fold over the past five  years (4.5-fold in 2009).

According to the Central Bank's forecast for 2016, the decline of  transfers of individuals will slacken to 6- 8% from the previous  9-12% (in terms of USD) due to the slowdown in the economic decline  in Russia and neutralization of expectations about the Russian ruble  depreciation.  

To note, in 2015 the amount of individuals' transfers to Armenia fell  by 23.5% to $1.6 bln, while the outflow declined by 16.2% to $0.8  bln. Russia's share in both inflow and outflow was the biggest - 63%  and 37%, respectively. In 2015, the net inflow of transfers from  Russia to Armenia dropped from $1.3 bln to $719 mln. In 2015, the  foreign trade turnover of Armenia fell by 20.6%, with imports  decreasing by 26.5% and exports - by 3.9%. The decline in imports and  transfers demonstrates reduction in consumer demand and household  revenues. In Jan-July 2016, the foreign trade turnover of Armenia  grew by 2.3% versus Jan-July 2015 (down 24% a year before), with  imports dropping by 4.4%, and export rising 16.5% versus Jan-July  2015.