Armenian Central Bank reduces unemployment level forecast for 2016 to 17.8%

ArmInfo. Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) has forecasted a 17.8% unemployment level in 2016 versus its previous forecast of 18,3% and the forecast for 2015 - 18.2%. Later in 2017-2018, with the slackening growth of production amid economic growth forecasts (3%-4.5% in 2017 with a higher indicator in 2018), the unemployment level will be falling by 0.4 percentage points annually, according to CBA's monetary policy program for Q3 2016.

In 2015, unemployment in the country was 18.5% by official statistics, in 2014- 17.6%, in 2013 - 16.2%.  In the first half of 2016, unemployment level grew to 18.4% in Q2 from 18.2% in Q1, by official data.  According to CBA's forecasts, in 2016, the average nominal salary in 2016 will grow 3.6%, in 2017 - 5.1%-5.5%, in 2018 - up to 6%.  In the private sector, the average salary will grow 6.5% in 2016, 6.6%- 6.8% in 2017, and up to 7% in 2018.  In the government sector, the average salary will grow by 0,7% in 2016, 3.6%-4% in 2017, and up to 5%-5.4% in 2018. The minimum salary was increased to 55,000 drams as of July 1 2015.   In 2016, this indicator will not be increased. The further growth of salaries depends on GDP growth rates and inflation, as well as the gradual increase of the minimum salary envisaged by the three-year mid-term program of sate expenditures.

According to National Statistics, the growth of nominal salary in Armenia has slackened to 2.6% on Jan-Aug 2016 from 10.3% a year ago. This indicator totaled 185,782 drams ($386). In August 2016 alone, it fell 5% as much as a year ago. In August 2016 as compared to August 2015, the nominal salary growth slackened to 2.9% in August 2016 from 9.3% in August 2015. The salary at the state-run enterprises for Jan-Aug 2016 totaled 161,218AMD ($335) falling 0.2% (versus 13.3% growth a year ago). The salary in private organizations grew by 4.9% year over year from 7.1% to 218,822AMD ($454). ). In August alone, the salary at the state-run enterprises increased and privately owned enterprises fell 7.5% and 2.3% respectively nearly repeating the downward trends of the August of 2015 - 5.9% and 4.1%. For comparison, the nominal salary in Jan-Aug 2014 increased 7.7% year over year, and decreased 3.7% for August alone. The salary at both state-run enterprises increased and privately owned enterprises fell by 5.9% and 1.4% for August but increased by 6.8% and 8.5% for Jan-Aug, respectively.