ArmInfo. According to the updated forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA), in 2016 unemployment in Armenia will make up 18.1% (versus the previously expected 17.8%), according to the CBA's monetary policy program for Q4 2016. In 2017, the CBA expects unemployment to grow to 18.3%, whereas in its previous forecast for 2017-2018 the CBA expected annual decline of unemployment by 0.4 pct points.
To note, in 2015 unemployment in Armenia made up 18.5% by official data, in 2014 - 17.6%, in 2013 - 16.2%. In H1 2016, unemployment grew from 18.2% in Q1 to 18.4% in Q2.
According to the CBA's forecast, in 2016 the average nominal salary in Armenia will rise by 2%, and this pace will be maintained in 2017. Afterwards the growth will make up 5% in 2019. In the private sector the average salary will be increased by 4.1% in 2016 (versus the previously expected 6.5%), but due to the expected deflation the actual salary in the private sector will grow by 5.4%. In 2016 the minimum salary amount was retained at 55,000 AMD, which came into effect on 1 July 2015. In 2017, the lower threshold of salary will not be revised. Given the expected economic growth (2.8-4.3%), the average nominal salary will grow by 3.7%, and the growth will make up 5% in 2018 and almost 6.2% in 2019. In the pubic sector, the CBA expects the average salary to drop by 0.3% in 2016 (versus the previously expected 0.7% growth). Given the Government's policy of optimization of the government staff, in 2017 salaries in the public sector will grow by 0.4%, and the growth will make up 2.3% in 2018 and 4% in 2019.
The National Statistical Service of Armenia says that the nominal salary in Armenia slowed down the growth rates from 9.2% in Jan-Oct 2015 to 2.4% in Jan-Oct 2016, and amounted to 185,689 AMD ($387). In Jan-Oct 2016, the salary in the public sector made up 159,791 AMD ($333), dropping by 1.1% as compared to Jan-Oct 2015. The salary in the private sector slowed down the growth rates from 7.1% to 5.2%, and totaled 219,893 AMD ($458). In Jan-Dec 2015 the nominal salary in Armenia grew by 7.7%; in particular, in the public sector the salary rose by 8.2%, and in the private sector - 7%, versus 7.6%, 7.4% and 7.7% a year before.
Meanwhile, according to the WB forecasts, poverty in Armenia will drop from 25.6% in 2015 to 24.9% in 2016, with further decline to 24.1-23.2% in 2017-2018.
