Ivan Anisimov: One should not expect growth of transfers from Russia to Armenia but decline will slacken

ArmInfo. One should not expect growth of transfers from Russia to Armenia in the current year, member of the Information Policy Council of Russia's Association of Regional Banks Ivan Anisimov stated in a talk to ArmInfo's correspondent.

"In my estimations, the decline rates will slacken but positive dynamics in 2017 will not be registered. In my opinion this is related to drop of world economic figures in overall and in Russia particularly. Drop of transfers to Armenia is commensurable with economic downfall in Russia.  The amount of transactions declined and most likely this trend will be consistent", he stressed.

According to the expert the current situation is a new reality, which will not allow returning to previous figures. In this context the expert thinks that the further steps should be clearly defined. "Most importantly we should realize how to work further.  If we talk in Russian terms USD will never cost 30 Rubles".  According to Anisimov it is necessary to admit the new situation and try to develop  considering it.

According to the data of the Central Bank of Armenia in Jan-Nov 2016 versus Jan-Nov 2015 inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia dropped by 12.7% to $803.4 mln amid growth of outflow by 28.7% to $305.5 mln. As a result the net inflow of transfers from Russia dropped by 27.1% to $497.9 mln in year-over-year terms. Russia's share in inflow of transfers declined to 61% from 63% in y-o-y terms and grew in outflow from 36% to 43%.  In 2015, the net inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia fell from $1.3 bln to $719 mln, having actually dropped twofold and almost approaching the level of the crisis- affected year 2009 ($760 mln, twofold year-over-year decline). By the data of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA), over the past three years, the prevalence of the inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia over the outflow from Armenia to Russia dropped from 8.5-fold to 3.3- fold (versus 4.5-fold in 2009) because the inflow dynamics sharply changed from positive 20% to negative 36% amid the outflow growth slackening from 35% to 12%. It should be noted for comparison that in the crisis-affected year 2009 the inflow of transfers from Russia dropped by 35% amid the 16% growth in the outflow to Russia, which is almost similar to the trend of 2015. However, the factors that triggered reduction in transfers were different in 2015 and 2009. Six years ago, the situation deteriorated due to the global economic crisis, whereas now the unfavorable consequences are due to the long-term factors - sharp decline in oil prices and international sanctions against Russia, which has the biggest share (up to 63%) in the incoming transfers to Armenia.