In Armenia economic activity growth slackened in 2015-2016 from 3.1% to 0.5%

ArmInfo. In Jan-Dec 2016, the economic activity growth in Armenia slackened to 0.5% from 3.1% in 2015, with services and industry remaining the economy drivers. In Jan-Dec 2014 the economic activity growth was much higher - 3.9%.  According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in December 2016 the economic activity rose by 17.9% (down 0.1% versus Dec 2015), while in December 2015 the growth was 20.4% (up 0.7% versus Dec 2014).

In Jan-Dec 2016, services grew by 7.1% and industry - by 6.7% (versus 2.7% and 5.2% respective growth in Jan-Dec 2015). Trade rose by 0.1% (versus 8% decline in Jan-Dec 2015). At the same time, agriculture dropped by 5.2%, power engineering - by 6.2%, and construction - by 10.8%. In Jan-Dec 2015, agriculture, construction and power engineering grew by 11.7%, 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively.

In Jan-Dec 2016, the consumer price index rose by 1.5% versus Jan-Dec 2015, and in December 2016 the index grew by 7% as compared to Dec 2015, and by 0.7% versus Nov 2016.

In December 2016 alone, agriculture dropped by 11.4% (down 6.4% in Dec 2015), while construction grew by 77.6%, trade - by 46.4%, power engineering - by 12.4%, services - by 10.9%, and industry - by 6.4% (versus 62.1%, 46.2%, 9%, 27.6% and 9.3% respective growth in Dec 2015).

As compared to Dec 2015, construction, power engineering, and services decreased by 10.1%, 4.5% and 0.6%, respectively, while agriculture rose by 6.5%, industry - by 5.9%, and trade - by 4.4%.

In Jan-Dec 2016, trade amounted to 2.2 trillion AMD in absolute terms ($4.6 bln), industry - 1.4 trillion AMD ($2.97 bln), services - 1.3 trillion AMD ($2.6 bln), agriculture - 907.5 bln AMD ($1.9 bln), and construction - 397.8 bln AMD ($827.8 mln). In Jan-Dec 2016 the electricity output made up 7315.2 mln kWh, including 700.6 mln kWh in December alone.

Armenia's foreign trade turnover in Jan-Dec 2016 amounted to 2436.6 bln AMD ($5075.3 mln), with a 7.4% growth versus Jan-Dec 2015.  Exports rose by 20% to 855.9 bln AMD ($1782.9 mln), and imports grew by 1.6% to 1580.7 bln AMD ($3292.4 mln). A year before, in Jan-Dec 2015 the foreign trade turnover dropped by 20.6%: imports fell by 26.5% and exports - by 3.9% (versus 1% growth in Jan-Dec 2014; 2.7% rise in exports and 0.4% rise in imports).

In December 2016 the average AMD/USD exchange rate made up 482.84 AMD/$1 and in Jan-Dec 2016 - 480.49 AMD/$1, versus 482.93 AMD/$1 in Dec 2015 and 477.92 AMD/$1 in Jan-Dec 2015. In Dec 2014 the exchange rate was 463.53 AMD/$1 and in Jan-Dec 2014 - 415.92 AMD/$1, versus 409.63 AMD/$1 in 405.32 AMD/$1 in December 2016.

To note, in its December forecast the World Bank said that Armenia would demonstrate 0% GDP growth for 2016 (versus the previously expected 3.1%). Afterwards, in its January forecast, the WB mentioned 2.4% GDP growth, and 2.7% growth for 2017. According to the IMF, the GDP in Armenia would grow by 3.2% in 2016, and by 3.4% in 2017. The EBRD forecasted Armenia's GDP growth for 2016 at 2%; the EDB - at 0.6% for 2016 and 2.9% for 2017; Fitch - at 0.8% for 2016 (versus the previously expected 2%), 2.1% for 2017, and 3.1% for 2018; and Moody's - at 2.2% for 2016. The Central Bank of Armenia forecasted 1.3-1.8% economic activity growth for 2016. The state budget of Armenia mentions 2.2% GDP growth for 2016, and 3.2% growth for 2017.  Independent experts think that since autumn 2016 the country has been experiencing economic recession which may result in long-term economic stagnation.