Central Bank of Armenia updated unemployment forecast for 2017 - 17.7% with the trend of decreasing by 2020 to 16.7-17%

ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia has updated the unemployment forecast for 2017 - 17.7%, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous one. In the medium term, the Central Bank's forecasts point to a downward trend: in 2018, to 17-17.3% and in 2019 to 16.7-17%. In the previous forecast of the Central Bank, unemployment in 2017 was expected at 18.5%, with an annual decline in 2018 to 18-18.2% and in 2019 to 17.6-18%.

According to the updated forecast of the Central Bank, the average nominal wage will increase by 2% in 2017, with an acceleration of growth rates in 2018 to 4-4,4% and in 2019 to 5,4-5,8%. Thus, in the private sector, the average nominal wage is expected to grow by 4.2% in 2017, by 5.2% in 2018 and by 6.5% in 2019, and by 6.5% in 2019, and in the public sector - by a decrease of 0.7% in 2017 with a change in Growth in 2018 and 2019, respectively, by 3.4% and 4.9%. In the previous forecast, the Central Bank expected growth of the average nominal wage in 2017 by 1.5%, with the acceleration of the rate in 2018 to 3.6-4% and in 2019 to 4.8-5.2%, while in the private sector the growth of the average Wage in 2017 was expected at 3.6%, in 2018 - 4.7% and in 2019 - 6.1%, while in the public sector it was expected to reduce wages in 2017 by 1% with an output for growth in 2018 by 2.9% and acceleration the rate in 2019 to 4.5%.

To note, in 2016 the minimum wage was not reviewed and was maintained at 55,000 AMD, which came into effect on July 1, 2015. In 2017, the minimum wage threshold will also not be revised.

According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, the nominal wage in Armenia has sharply slowed the growth rates in 2016 from 7.7% to 1.7% per annum, to 187850 AMD ($ 391). In particular, wages in the public sector in 2016 was 161872 AMD ($ 337), a decrease of 1.8%, against the growth of 8.2% a year earlier, while wages in the private sector slowed the annual growth rate from 7% to 4.6% to 221,850 AMD ($ 462). The unemployment rate in Armenia fell in 2016 from 18.5% to 18%. In the first quarter of 2017, the unemployment rate rose to 19% from 18.3% in the first quarter of 2016.